Jean Monnet conference, Kiev 2011 Oil and Natural Gas Deposits and Pipelines as a Driving Force for Rising/Resolving Conflicts in Central Eurasia? Oil and Natural Gas Deposits and Pipelines as a Driving Force for Rising/Resolving Conflicts in Central Eurasia? Plamen Dimitrov Bulgarian Geopolitical Society

The Prisoners of Geography - What does Central Eurasia mean? - Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are landlocked countries - The main oil and gas markets are far - Soviet pipeline legacy reinforces this - Soviet pipeline legacy reinforces this disadvantageous position

Geopolitical Complexity of the Oil and Gas fields 1. Necessity to attract international companies for its development 2. Necessity to build pipelines passing through one or more transit countries 3. Dispute concerning the field ownership 4. Ethno-religious or political instability 5. A belt of international isolation around the country, owner of the filed

Potential Conflicts in the context of oil and gas busyness Intrastate conflicts – Iraq, Nigeria, but not in Central Eurasia Intrastate conflicts – Iraq, Nigeria, but not in Central Eurasia Interstate conflicts Interstate conflicts Conflict between the oil states and IOCs Conflict between the oil states and IOCs Global conflicts Global conflicts

Legal Status of Caspian Sea Lake or Sea? Lake or Sea? Soviet legacy Soviet legacy Oil and Gas deposits as a main engine of the conflict over the Caspian legal status Oil and Gas deposits as a main engine of the conflict over the Caspian legal status The delimitation in North Caspian is agreed (Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan) The delimitation in North Caspian is agreed (Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan)

Soviet Oil Map, 1970

Caspian as an International Lake

Irans Portion, 3 Versions

Why the Caspian Legal Status Agreement is impossible? Iran wants 20%, but the others do not agree to give such portion Iran wants 20%, but the others do not agree to give such portion Russia wants division of the bottom but not division of the water surface, Iran opposes – why? Russia wants division of the bottom but not division of the water surface, Iran opposes – why? Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan cannot agreed over the Kyapaz/Serdar field Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan cannot agreed over the Kyapaz/Serdar field

Karabakh conflict and the Pipelines Baku-Ceyhan pipeline – the shortest route is via Armenia Baku-Ceyhan pipeline – the shortest route is via Armenia Who supported the pipeline Baku- Armenia-Turkey? Who supported the pipeline Baku- Armenia-Turkey? Why it has been impossible? Why it has been impossible? How do the pipelines influence the Karabakh conflict? – Conservation How do the pipelines influence the Karabakh conflict? – Conservation Karabakh changes the geometry of pipelines Karabakh changes the geometry of pipelines

Peace Pipelines? They dont exist They dont exist Conflict should be resolved BEFORE pipeline building Conflict should be resolved BEFORE pipeline building Big IOCs and big money are afraid of coflicts Big IOCs and big money are afraid of coflicts

US-Iran conflict and Caspian Oil/Gas Export US embargo prevent IOCs from participation in big pipeline projects with Iran – Nabucco US embargo prevent IOCs from participation in big pipeline projects with Iran – Nabucco No outlet for the Caspian oil to the Indian ocean No outlet for the Caspian oil to the Indian ocean Eventual US-Iran reconciliation can change dramatically the oil/gas game in Central Eurasia Eventual US-Iran reconciliation can change dramatically the oil/gas game in Central Eurasia

Afghanistanian conflict and Transafghanistanian gas pipeline The route – Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan (India) The route – Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan (India) Long history of the project – since 1990s Long history of the project – since 1990s US and even Russia support TAP but the security threats in Afghanistan are insurmountable obstacle US and even Russia support TAP but the security threats in Afghanistan are insurmountable obstacle

Global Geopolitical Conflicts and Caspian Oil&Gas USA, EU, and Turkey want diversification of the oil/gas export routes in the Caspian region USA, EU, and Turkey want diversification of the oil/gas export routes in the Caspian region Russia opposes EUs Southern Corridor – why? Russia opposes EUs Southern Corridor – why? China wants to attract as much Caspian oil and gas as it is possible China wants to attract as much Caspian oil and gas as it is possible

Resource nationalism and the conflicts between oil states and IOCs Kazakhstan Kazakhstan - Kashagan - Kashagan - Karachaganak - Karachaganak Turkmenistan Turkmenistan