1 Современные проблемы ядерной энергетики Профессор Мурогов В.М. 2009

2 Современные проблемы ядерной энергетики Лекция 1. Введение. Современное состояние ядерной энергетики в мире

Nuclear Power Today: At a glance 372 GWe installed (approx 11% of global generating capacity) 15% of global electricity supply More than 13,000 reactor-years of operating experience A proven technology that provides clean electricity at predictable & competitive costs Continuously improved economic & safety performance

Nuclear power today: On 1 January 2008, 439 nuclear power plants (NPPs) operated in 30 countries worldwide, with a total installed capacity of MWe. Where does nuclear power go from here? GWe installed

About reactor years of experience 439 power reactors in operation (installed capacity about 372 GWe) Average plant load factor: >80% Contributions to global electricity: ~15% Low electricity cost, good safety records 2 new NPPs connected to the grid. 5 constructions started, 37 reactors under construction in 2006 Status of Nuclear Power in 2006

Current status: October 2008 In operation 439 nuclear power reactors [372 GW] USA104 France 59 Japan 55 Russia 31 S. Korea 20 UK Germany

Current status: October 2008 Under Construction 37 nuclear power reactors China8 Russia 7 India6 RoK4 Bulgaria2 Ukraine2 Japan2

Structure of global electricity supply Coal 40.3% Oil 6.6% Natural gas 19.7% Nuclear 15.2% Renewables 2.2% Hydro 16.0% Global electricity generation in 2008: 18,235 TWh

Nuclear share of electricity (2008) USA 19%Rep. Korea 40%China 2%Belgium 54%France 78%Switzerland 37%Japan 30%Russia 16%S. Africa 4%

10 Parameter In 5+2 nuclear weapons states In 24 non- nuclear weapons states Number of nuclear power units: in operation under construction Japan 56, S. Korea 20 Canada 18, Germany 17 Ukraine 15, Sweden 10 Spain 9, Belgium 7 Total installed GW(e) in operation under construction , Few companies (Rosatom (Russia), URENCO, USEC (USA), EURODIF (France), CNNC (China) and JNFL (Japan) can enrich uranium on industrial scale. Few countries (France, UK, Russia, Japan, India and China) have nuclear fuel reprocessing capacities. Few countries have advanced fast reactor developments (Russia, France, Japan, India, China and USA). Nuclear power in weapons and non-weapons states (recent situation)

11 Countries are going to use nuclear energy during and taking some initial actions for that. Latin America: expected new (Chile, Peru); Western Europe: expected new (Italy, Portugal, Turkey); Eastern Europe: expected new (Belarus, Kazakhstan, Poland); Africa: expected new (Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Tunis); Middle East&South Asia: expected new (Bangladesh); South East Asia&the Pacific: expected new (Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand); Far East: expected new (North Korea, Philippines, Vietnam). In total about 21 new countries are considering to start using nuclear energy during

12 Текущее положение Промышленные действующие АЭС (май 2008) 439 Мощность, GW(e) 372 Число стран 30 Производство электричества (2003), TWh 2524(15%) Оперативный опыт, реактор-год Строящиеся АЭС 37(20 в Азии) мощность, GWe 35

13 Действующие и строящиеся ядерные реакторы в мире Страна Действующие реакторы Строящиеся реакторы Аргентина NoMW(e) No Ядерное электричество, поставляемое в 2002г TW*h % ГодыМесяцы Полный оперативный опыт на декабрь 2003 Армения Бельгия Бразилия Болгария Канада Китай Чехия Финляндия Франция Германия Венгрия

14 Действующие и строящиеся ядерные реакторы в мире (продолжение) Страна Действующие реакторы Строящиеся реакторы NoMW(e) Ядерное электричество, поставляемое в 2002г TW*h % ГодыМесяцы Полный оперативный опыт на декабрь 2003 No Индия Японии Респ. Корея Литва Мексика Нидерланды Пакистан Румыния Россия Словакия

15 Действующие и строящиеся ядерные реакторы в мире (продолжение) Действующие реакторы Строящиеся реакторы NoMW(e) Ядерное электричество, поставляемое в 2002г TW*h % ГодыМесяцы Полный оперативный опыт на декабрь 2003 No Страна Словения Юж. Африка Испания Швеция Швейцария Украина Велико- британия США Всего Прим.: Итог включает следующие данные Тайваня, Китая: -6 ед., 4884 MW(e) действующих; 2 ед., 2600 MW(e) строящихся TW*h выработки электроэнергии, представляет 20,53% от общего количества выработки 2002 года -134 года и 1 месяц от общего эксплуатационного опыта

Nuclear Capacity Development Construction Profile China & India Other Developing Countries North America W. Europe CIS & EE Jap & RoK

Development of regional nuclear generating capacities North America Eastern Europe & CIS Western Europe Asia

A history of mistaken forecasts In 1975 IAEA still forecast, globally 1990: 1000 – 1300 GW(e) 2000: 3600 – 5300 GW(e) Actual 2008 capacity is just about 372 GW(e)

Energy efficiency improvements Economic restructuring Significant drop in electricity demand Excess generating capacity Oil (traded fossil energy) price collapse Advent of the high-efficient cheap gas turbine technology (GTCC) Electricity market liberalization & privatization Reasons for the mid 1980s stagnation:

Little regard for supply security Regulatory interventions after Three Mile Island High interest rates Chernobyl Break up of the Soviet Union Reasons for the mid 1980s (and beyond) stagnation : All the above together: Nuclear power out of favour (poor economics and lack of demand)

Nuclear Fuel Cycle

Spent fuel in storage around the world: historical data through 2005 plus projections through 2020

23 Relative energy content of Russian natural fuel resources Coal - 8,7% U ,7% Gas - 3,4% Oil - 0,8% U ,4%

Symbiotic Fuel Cycles

Spent fuel and waste from a 1,000 MW nuclear power plant operating (1) for 60 years 1) Decommissioning waste volumes are included

Summary Fuel Cycle Extensive worldwide experience of the two main fuel cycles – Reprocessing – Direct disposal 60 years of experience for mining, milling, enrichment, storage and transport. Disposal of lower active wastes for decades Disposal of spent fuel and high level wastes within 15 – 20 years. The 3 P issue: Parity, Proportionality, Priority

27 Ядерные боеголовки

Nonproliferation and Nuclear Security Nuclear Security: The prevention and detection of and response to theft, sabotage, unauthorized access, illegal transfer or other malicious acts involving nuclear material, other radioactive substances, or their associated facilities. Nuclear Nonproliferation: To curb and prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, their delivery means, and related materials and technologies. Owner Controlled Area Protected Area Vital Area Access Control Points Protected Area Double Fence

Status of major non-proliferation and security conventions and treaties (as of April 2008)

What is unique to nuclear is non-proliferation Preventing the misuse of nuclear materials for non-peaceful purposes needs special attention It is an area where IAEA has a strict mandate Non-proliferation is a political problem NPT regimes needs strengthening

Non-proliferation – The NPT The basis for current non proliferation efforts is the Treaty on Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) – both non-proliferation and disarmament NPT Review Conference in May 2005 considered strengthening verification and inspections (i.e., universal adoption of so-called Additional Protocol) – No progress made Nuclear fuel cycle in non weapon states has become a major focus of NPT by default

The elements of non-proliferation

33 Выработка АЭС электричества на душу населения (2006)

Bjorn Wahlström Nuclear Energy and Society

IAEA statute ARTICLE II: Objectives The Agency shall seek to accelerate and enlarge the contribution of atomic energy to peace, health and prosperity throughout the world. It shall ensure, so far as it is able, that assistance provided by it or at its request or under its supervision or control is not used in such a way as to further any military purpose.