Национальный исследовательский центр «Курчатовский институт» New opportunity for forecasting of the mobile market Head of Information and Analysis Department Agency on innovation activitity Vladimir Zhulego Istanbul, 2012 y.

Национальный исследовательский центр «Курчатовский институт» 1. The simplest way to forecast is the trends forecdasting: statistical data on the number of subscribers, traffic volume, revenue allow us to construct short-term forecasts. The more points of observation, the more accurate predictions can be built: if you have a two-point, you have linear forecasts, If you have three points, you have the quadratic approximation Forecasting based on the trends Disadvantages trends forecasting: a) such projections did not reveal the reasons for the changes in the market, b) do not allow to take into account long-term impact of significant factors, c) does not take into account the state of the market, its potential d) do not create any impact on market mechanisms, 3. Task: to construct model of companies interaction on the market, which will not have these disadvantages.

Национальный исследовательский центр «Курчатовский институт» Setting of the problem. It is necessary to construct the model of companies interaction on the market, that will allow to receive long-term forecasts of the market, will include significant factors of influence, would predict impact on the market of control parameters. Ability to make credible long-term forecasts creates for company competitive advantage, and the ability impact on market for control parameters allows company to build an effective strategy on the market.

Национальный исследовательский центр «Курчатовский институт» The diagram of interaction of companies on the market 2 Competition on the oligopolistic market (5 companies)

Национальный исследовательский центр «Курчатовский институт» One-parameter model of competition in oligopolistic markets. 5 Here: The model takes into account the saturation of the market, the flow of customers caused by exposure to advertising companies (the share of spending on advertising for different companies is different) The model takes into account the stabilization of ARPU (each company has your level)

Национальный исследовательский центр «Курчатовский институт» A one-parameter model does not take into account the difference in rates companies and customer segmentation: in practice marketing policy may be very different in the segments. Disadvantages of a one-parameter model of competition. 5 Diagram illustrates the transition to a two-parameter model of competition with segmentation

Национальный исследовательский центр «Курчатовский институт» Two-parameter model of competition in oligopolistic market. 6 To eliminate this disadvantages was constructed two-parameter model, where we have introduced the segmentation customers. The model takes into account: saturation of the market, flow of customers caused by advertising, flow of customers caused by the difference in rates, saturation of ARPU of each segment in each company

Национальный исследовательский центр «Курчатовский институт» New opportunity for forecast of the mobile communications market 6 The proposed extended model of competition in the oligopolistic market can effectively control the position of the company communications market. The model allows to calculate the optimal company strategy. For axample, calculation shows that the cost of an increase in advertising offset by growth in market share or are even significantly lower than the additional revenue (advertising embedded in a Dollar brings $ 4 in revenue). In conclusion, it should be emphasized that the above model could be extended by taking into account some parameters such as QoS or others, but in such a model is proposed, in our opinion, may have very practical application. Projected costs for the development of these approaches will be significantly lower than revenue growth due to the optimization strategy. "Market forces" at first glance it seems unmanageable, but in fact, new approaches provide powerful new tools for forecasting the market and the challenge of management the company is that would have to learn how to use them.

Национальный исследовательский центр «Курчатовский институт» Where details can be found? 9 1.Жулего В.Г. «Прогнозирование телекоммуникационного рынка на основе динамической модели конкуренции», журнал «Экономические стратегии», , стр Жулего В.Г. Балякин А.А. «Моделирование олигопольной конкуренции на Телекоммуникационном рынке», журнал «Вестник связи» в печати ( )

Национальный исследовательский центр «Курчатовский институт» Others links И.В. Гришин, В.И. Ширяев «К прогнозированию в телекоммуникациях для автоматизации задач управления», Сборник материалов симпозиума в МЭИН, 2007 год. 2. Bass F. M. A new product growth for model consumer durables, Management Science, Vol.15. – pp И.С. Березин. «Сколько в России абонентов мобильной связи?» ROMIR-мониторинг, 19 февраля 2007 г Л.Л. Делицин. «Количественные модели распространения нововведений в сфере информационных технологий», монография, издание Московского государственного университета культуры и искусств, Москва Д. И. Трубецков, Е. С. Мчедлова, Л. В. Красичков «Введение в теорию самоорганизации открытых систем» ФИЗМАТЛИТ, 2005 г.

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