Chapter Twelve 1 A PowerPoint Tutorial to Accompany macroeconomics, 5th ed. N. Gregory Mankiw Mannig J. Simidian ® CHAPTER TWELVE Aggregate Demand in the. - презентация

1 Chapter Twelve 1 A PowerPoint Tutorial to Accompany macroeconomics, 5th ed. N. Gregory Mankiw Mannig J. Simidian ® CHAPTER TWELVE Aggregate Demand in the Open Economy

2 Chapter Twelve 2 Introducing… e Income, Output, Y LM* IS* Equilibrium exchange rate Equilibrium Income

3 Chapter Twelve 3 Assumption 1: The domestic interest rate is equal to the world interest rate (r = r*). Assumption 2: The price level is exogenously fixed since the model is used to analyze the short run (P). This implies that the nominal exchange rate is proportional to the real exchange rate. Assumption 3: The money supply is also set exogenously by the central bank (M). Assumption 4: Our LM* curve will be vertical because the exchange rate does not enter into our LM* equation. IS*: Y = C(Y-T) + I(r*) + G + NX(e) LM*: M/P = L (r*,Y) Start with these two equations:

4 Chapter Twelve 4 E Income, Output, Y Y=E Planned Expenditure, E = C + I + G + NX r Income, Output, Y e Net Exports, NX NX(e) IS* An increase in the exchange rate, lowers net exports, which shifts planned expenditure downward and lowers income. The IS* curve summarizes these changes in the goods market equilibrium. (a) (b) (c)

5 Chapter Twelve 5 r Income, Output, Y LM e Income, Output, Y LM* r = r* The LM curve and the world interest rate together determine the level of income. The LM curve and the world interest rate together determine the level of income.

6 Chapter Twelve 6 e Income, Output, Y LM* IS* e Income, Output, Y LM* IS* IS*' LM*' When income rises in a small open economy, due to the fiscal expansion, the interest rate tries to rise but capital inflows from abroad put downward pressure on the interest rate.This inflow causes an increase in the demand for the currency pushing up its value and thus making domestic goods more expensive to foreigners (causing a – NX). The – NX offsets the expansionary fiscal policy and the effect on Y. When income rises in a small open economy, due to the fiscal expansion, the interest rate tries to rise but capital inflows from abroad put downward pressure on the interest rate.This inflow causes an increase in the demand for the currency pushing up its value and thus making domestic goods more expensive to foreigners (causing a – NX). The – NX offsets the expansionary fiscal policy and the effect on Y. When the increase in the money supply puts downward pressure on the domestic interest rate, capital flows out as investors seek a higher return elsewhere. The capital outflow prevents the interest rate from falling. The outflow also causes the exchange rate to depreciate making domestic goods less expensive relative to foreign goods, and stimulates NX. Hence, monetary policy influences the e rather than r. When the increase in the money supply puts downward pressure on the domestic interest rate, capital flows out as investors seek a higher return elsewhere. The capital outflow prevents the interest rate from falling. The outflow also causes the exchange rate to depreciate making domestic goods less expensive relative to foreign goods, and stimulates NX. Hence, monetary policy influences the e rather than r. + G, or – T + e, no Y + G, or – T + e, no Y + M - e, + Y + M - e, + Y The Mundell-Fleming Model Under Floating Exchange Rates

7 Chapter Twelve 7 e Income, Output, Y LM* IS* e Income, Output, Y LM* IS* IS*' A fiscal expansion shifts IS* to the right. To maintain the fixed exchange rate, the Fed must increase the money supply, thus increasing LM* to the right. Unlike the case with flexible exchange rates, there is no crowding out effect on NX due to a higher exchange rate. A fiscal expansion shifts IS* to the right. To maintain the fixed exchange rate, the Fed must increase the money supply, thus increasing LM* to the right. Unlike the case with flexible exchange rates, there is no crowding out effect on NX due to a higher exchange rate. If the Fed tried to increase the money supply by buying bonds from the public, that would put down- ward pressure on the interest rate. Arbitragers respond by selling the domestic currency to the central bank, causing the money supply and the LM curve to contract to their initial positions. If the Fed tried to increase the money supply by buying bonds from the public, that would put down- ward pressure on the interest rate. Arbitragers respond by selling the domestic currency to the central bank, causing the money supply and the LM curve to contract to their initial positions. + G, or – T + Y LM*' + no Y The Mundell-Fleming Model Under Fixed Exchange Rates

8 Chapter Twelve 8 Fixed vs. Floating Exchange Rate Conclusions Fixed Exchange RatesFloating Exchange Rates Fiscal Policy is Powerful. Monetary Policy is Powerless. Fiscal Policy is Powerless. Monetary Policy is Powerful. The Mundell-Fleming model shows that fiscal policy does not influence aggregate income under floating exchange rates. A fiscal expansion causes the currency to appreciate, reducing net exports and offsetting the usual expansionary impact on aggregate demand. The Mundell –Fleming model shows that monetary policy does not influence aggregate income under fixed exchange rates. Any attempt to expand the money supply is futile, because the money supply must adjust to ensure that the exchange rate stays at its announced level. Hint: (Think of floating money.) Hint: (Fixed and Fiscal sound alike).

9 Chapter Twelve 9 Policy in the Mundell-Fleming Model: A Summary The Mundell-Fleming model shows that the effect of almost any economic policy on a small open economy depends on whether the exchange rate is floating or fixed. The Mundell-Fleming model shows that the power of monetary and fiscal policy to influence aggregate demand depends on the exchange rate regime. The Mundell-Fleming model shows that the effect of almost any economic policy on a small open economy depends on whether the exchange rate is floating or fixed. The Mundell-Fleming model shows that the power of monetary and fiscal policy to influence aggregate demand depends on the exchange rate regime.

10 Chapter Twelve 10 The higher return will attract funds from the rest of the world, driving the US interest rate back down. And, if the interest rate were below the world interest rate, domestic residents would lend abroad to earn a higher return, driving the domestic interest rate back up. In the end, the domestic interest rate would equal the world interest rate. What if the domestic interest rate were above the world interest rate?

11 Chapter Twelve 11 Why doesnt this logic always apply? There are two reasons why interest rates differ across countries: 1) Country Risk: when investors buy US government bonds, or make loans to US corporations, they are fairly confident that they will be repaid with interest. By contrast, in some less developed countries, it is plausible to fear that political upheaval may lead to a default on loan repayments. Borrowers in such countries often have to pay higher interest rates to compensate lenders for this risk. 2) Exchange Rate Expectations: suppose that people expect the French franc to fall in value relative to the US dollar. Then loans made in francs will be repaid in a less valuable currency than loans made in dollars. To compensate for the expected fall in the French currency, the interest rate in France will be higher than the interest rate in the US.

12 Chapter Twelve 12 Differentials in the Mundell-Fleming Model To incorporate interest-rate differentials into the Mundell-Fleming model, we assume that the interest rate in our small open economy is determined by the world interest rate plus a risk premium r = r* + The risk premium is determined by the perceived political risk of making loans in a country and the expected change in the real interest rate. Well take the risk premium as exogenously determined. For any given fiscal policy, monetary policy, price level, and risk premium, these two equations determine the level of income and exchange rate that equilibrate the goods market and the money market. IS*: Y = C(Y-T) + I(r* + ) + G + NX(e) LM*: M/P = L (r* +,Y)

13 Chapter Twelve 13 Now suppose that political turmoil causes the countrys risk premium to rise. The most direct effect is that the domestic interest rate r rises. The higher interest rate has two effects: 1) IS* curve shifts to the left, because the higher interest rate reduces investment. 2) LM* shifts to the right, because the higher interest rate reduces the demand for money, and this allows a higher level of income for any given money supply. These two shifts cause income to rise and thus push down the equilibrium exchange rate on world markets. The important implication: expectations of the exchange rate are partially self-fulfilling. For example, suppose that people come to believe that the French franc will not be valuable in the future. Investors will place a larger risk premium on French assets: will rise in France. This expectation will drive up French interest rates and will drive down the value of the French franc. Thus, the expectation that a currency will lose value in the future causes it to lose value today. The next slide will demonstrate the mechanics.

14 Chapter Twelve 14 e Income, Output, Y LM* IS* LM*' IS*' An Increase in the Risk Premium An increase in the risk premium associated with a country drives up its interest rate. Because the higher interest rate reduces investment, the IS* curve shifts to the left. Because it also reduces money demand, the LM* curve shifts to the right. Income rises, and the exchange rate depreciates. An increase in the risk premium associated with a country drives up its interest rate. Because the higher interest rate reduces investment, the IS* curve shifts to the left. Because it also reduces money demand, the LM* curve shifts to the right. Income rises, and the exchange rate depreciates. Is this really is where the economy ends up? In the next slide, well see that increases in country risk are not desirable. Is this really is where the economy ends up? In the next slide, well see that increases in country risk are not desirable.

15 Chapter Twelve 15 There are three reasons why, in practice, such a boom in income does not occur. First, the central bank might want to avoid the large depreciation of the domestic currency and, therefore, may respond by decreasing the money supply M. Second, the depreciation of the domestic currency may suddenly increase the price of domestic goods, causing an increase in the overall price level P. Third, when some event increase the country risk premium, residents of the country might respond to the same event by increasing their demand for money (for any given income and interest rate), because money is often the safest asset available. All three of these changes would tend to shift the LM* curve toward the left, which mitigates the fall in the exchange rate but also tends to depress income.

16 Chapter Twelve 16 IS*: Y=C(Y-T) + I(r*) + G + NX(e) LM*: M/P=L (r*,Y) Recall the two equations of the Mundell-Fleming model: e Income, Output,Y LM* IS* LM*' P Income, Output,Y AD When the price level falls the LM* curve shifts to the right. The equilibrium level of income rises. The second graph displays the negative relationship between P and Y, which is summarized by the aggregate demand curve. When the price level falls the LM* curve shifts to the right. The equilibrium level of income rises. The second graph displays the negative relationship between P and Y, which is summarized by the aggregate demand curve.

17 Chapter Twelve 17 Mundell-Fleming Model Floating exchange rates Fixed exchange rates Devaluation Revaluation Mundell-Fleming Model Floating exchange rates Fixed exchange rates Devaluation Revaluation