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The table for diagnostic and forecasting of the development of Technical system Nelly Kozyreva, Belarus-TRIZ Moscow, ,
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By G. Altshuller By B. Zlotin By Yu. Salamatov By V. Petrov The laws of technical system evolution The lines of development The forecasting of development systems The schemes technical system evolution The various variants of formulation are:
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The table for diagnostic and forecasting of the development of Technical system a structural matrix + а circuit of laws of technical system evolution The one visually foreseeable document
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The Table allows in one visually foreseeable document to systematize to diagnose to predict to training set of all technical decisions of a system a stage of development of a system and it subsystems their further evolution on a basis of laws TRIZ
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For example: patents МКI A 63 Н 15/06 а toy "Bob of toy"
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The vertical axis: the laws of technical system evolution in the temporary order
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The formulation of the laws is given by Yu. Salamatov:
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The horizontal axis: the stages of realization the law increasing of a degree sufield
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The formulation of the basic processes, which occur to a system, is written down in cells on the crossing of a lines:
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The line of development a "substance" we show by Y. Salomatov:
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The Table Structure for Mono-system = The Table Structure for BI-POLI-
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The new columns for BI-POLI-system: allows simultaneously to see and analyze MONO-BI-POLI-systems
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Rule of filling of the table all the patent, scientific and technical information are used the numbered bibliographic list is made is determined a stages of the decision on the vertical/horizontal axis is determined used Altshullers Inventive Principle
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The indication example: patent USSR , 1979 the purpose
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The purposes are simultaneously to see: 1. The dynamics of development (years, stages) 2. The typical Altshullers Inventive Principles
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The training to the laws of technical system evolution and forecasting Materials for the training The training technique Diagnostics a stage of the development of technical system Forecasting the further evolution of technical system
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Materials for the training The Table The schemes of the inventions (educational fund a "Bob of toy) The schemes of the "Bob of toy", created by the students by the size 841х594 mm on separate white cards by the size 65х55 mm everyone carries out on cards of the own colour, 65х55 mm
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The training technique a passive stage a semi-active stage a stage of feedback a stage of active mastering a teacher explains the Laws, stages how spread out all the cards on the Table? the students see own "colour lines "! why are "a white spots " ????????
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A semi-active stage: How spread out all the cards on the Table? The group discussion about every invention: Which stage of the development a system does the invention concern? At which stage of the development is a substance - field? Does the invention concern to mono-, bi- or polysystem?
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A semi-active stage: How spread out all the cards on the Table? After the group has agreed - in what place of the Table it is necessary to put the scheme of the invention the recording about indication is made on the back card: a serial number from the numbered list the patented year the numbers of the used Altshullers Inventive Principles
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A stage of feedback: the students see own "colour lines "!
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A stage of active mastering: why are "a white spots " ????????
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Other formulation of the laws may be written:
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Other formulation of the lines of development a "substance" - "field" may be written:
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Diagnostic of a stage of the development Look: In what cells are the recordings about the inventions? At what stages is a majority of the inventions?
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Diagnostic of a stage of the development on which: a stage the development goes now a stage the development will go in the near future a stage of a possible future development the majority of the inventions concerning there are even some inventions comes to bring out higher there is no information about the inventions
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Diagnostic of a stage of the development Look : no information (a possible future stage) some inventions (the near future stage) the majority of inventions concerning (the now stage)
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Diagnostic of a stage of the development: How long will it be proceed and how? Is there an opportunity to move "lengthways" of horizontal axis? changing substance? changing field? What Altshullers Inventive Principles are used?
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The forecasting can be carried out on several directions For a concrete subsystem For the system as a whole Analysis of a "white spots" the energy source and the converter, the engine, the transmission, the working unit, the control unit
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The forecasting can be carried out on several directions For a concrete subsystem For the system as a whole Analysis of a "white spots" At which stage the development goes now? Which parts of the system are sharply lag behind in the development? Which Inventive Principles are used?
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The forecasting can be carried out on several directions For a concrete subsystem For the system as a whole Analysis of a "white spots" It is possible to assume the unable / inefficiency of the decisions, which are based on such set of attributes It is possible to predict the occurrence of a new direction !!!!!!!!!!!!
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The different algorithms for TRIZ-forecasting are: by B. Zlotin, A. Zusmann by V. Petrov They offer: to study a history of a system, to build structural, functional etc. tables, model, line of the development of subsystems
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Opportunity of use the Table in any techniques of TRIZ-forecasting The Table allows evidently: to combine in itself the results of the historical analysis, structural model, lines to see the directions of the further evolution of system to study a history of a system, to build structural, functional etc. tables, model, line of the development of subsystems
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Opportunity of use the Table for training the students of TRIZ- schools for engineers - designers, inventors to the laws of technical system evolution to Altshullers Inventive Principles to procedures of forecasting
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