Agrophysical Research Institute www.agrophys.ru. ARI Working Group of the ADAGIO Prof. Igor B.Uskov is an expert Research area: Agro-climatic modeling. - презентация

1 Agrophysical Research Institute

2 ARI Working Group of the ADAGIO Prof. Igor B.Uskov is an expert Research area: Agro-climatic modeling including soil- plant- atmosphere system modeling; various types of agricultural amelioration; microclimate control; influence of climate change on microclimate Dr.Dmitriy V. Nasonov is an expert Research area: microclimate of agricultural field; statistical modeling and simulation by using stochastic weather generator applied to climate scenarios; GIS presentation Olga V. Kononenko is a post graduate student Research area: Studying the energy-caused synoptic processes such as dust storms, their climatology and predictability Galina V. Danilova is a post graduate student Research area: Application of the analogue modeling to studying the accelerated successions in plant communities under climate change Dr.Mikhail V. Nikolaev is the responsible person within the ADAGIO project Research area: Adaptation of cultivation practice to climatic and environmental changes; development of agroecological analogue method in relation to climate change; vulnerability and adaptation assessments

3 Relevant Agrophysical Research Institute planned targets under Scientific Programmes of Russian Academy of Agricultural Sciences 2007 Target entitled: Design for regionalization of adaptation measures and strategies for agroecosystems sustainability in conditions of changing climate Target entitled: Landscape related response of cereal ecosystems to climate change in Russia and options for adaptation. Result: Assessments based on the analyses of potential changes in climatic resources and possible responses of cultivation practice in order to maintain high and stable crop yields in different landscape zones. 2005a Task entitled: To evaluate the effects of climate change on potential distribution of cereal crops within cultivable area of Russia. Result: Possible shift in distribution of cereal crops within cultivable area by b Task entitled: To make the agroclimatological background for landscape adapted agricultural systems planning within North-Western territory of Russia, the limitations at current climate regimes and environmental risks under climate change taken into consideration. Result: Modification of agroecological analogue method to defining the areas vulnerable to potential risk by pests, diseases and weeds with warming process Task entitled: To evaluate possible response of crop management practice to climate change in different agroecological regions of Russia. Result: Possible changes in optimum fertilization and irrigation rate as well as timing of farm operations in different agroecological regions by Common Target entitled: Theoretical background and methodology for field experiments for further application to landscape adapted agricultural systems planning changes, in climate taken into consideration. ( 36 months duration )

4 List of relevant books (monographs) Uskov I.B. et al (Authors collective of Agrophysical Research Institute) Agrometeorological factors of potential productivity. (Version under editing, total volume 586p.; in Russian,resume in English) Nikolaev M.V. and V.P.Yakushev 2004 Part 3.2 Adaptation of the agrotechnologies and rational distribution of field crops in a changing climate. p In: Consequences of global climate change for agricultural sector of economy. Russian Academy of Agricultural Sciences issue, Moscow, 331p. (in Russian,resume in English) Uskov I.B. (Eds.:Yakushev et al.) 2004 Recommendations for landscape adapted agricultural systems planning in the North-Western territory of Russia. Agrophysical Research Institute issue, St.Petersburg, 170p.(in Russian) Nikolaev M.V Present climate and crop yield variability. Gidrometeoizdat, St.Petersburg, 200p. (in Russian,resume in English) Kurtener D.A. and I.B.Uskov 1988 Control of agricultural field microclimate. Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad, 263p. (in Russian,resume in English) Kurtener D.A. and I.B.Uskov 1982 Climatic factors and the heat transfer in field and controlled environments. Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad, 231p. (in Russan,resume in English) * Gidrometeoizdat is the Official Hydrometeorological Public House of Russian Federation/ USSR

5 List of relevant papers Nikolaev M.V Adaptation of cropping systems to climate change in Russia.An example for cool temperate and temperate regions. Proceedings of IAMFE Regional Conference of Nordic Countries Field Experiments for Sustainable Agriculture in the Changing World., October , St.Petersburg, Russia, IAMFE issue, p Nikolaev M.V Climate change effects on cereal cropping in Russia and options for adaptation. Slovak Meteorological Journal, Vol.1, p. ( Nikolaev M.V Impact of climate change on cereal cropping systems in Russia and options for adaptation. Proceedings of Conference Abstracts Bioclimatology and Water in the Land, International Bioclimatological Conference, September , Strecno, Slovak Republic. Comenius University issue, Bratislava ) Nikolaev M.V Cereal crop zonation in a changing climate. In book: Physical, chemical and climatic factors of land productivity. St.Petersburg State Technical University issue, p (in Russian) Nikolaev M.V.and V.A.Semyonov 2007 Agroclimatological background of the North-Western territory of Russia for landscape adapted agricultural systems planning. In book Research and investigations for empirical basis of landscape adapted agricultural systems planning. St.Petersburg State Technical University issue, p (in Russian) Nikolaev M.V Application of spatial analogs method to evaluation of climate change impacts on agroecological conditions in the North-Western territory of Russia. In book: Research and investigations for empirical basis of landscape adapted agricultural systems planning. St.Petersburg State Technical University issue, p (in Russian) Eitzinger J., Kubu G., Lemeshko N.A., Minin V.B., Nikolaev M.V., Toude J.A., Uskov I.B Modern methodology in agrometeorology and soil hydrology for sustainable land management in Austria and Russia. Proceedings of the International Conference and Exhibition on Mechanization of Field Experiments (IAMFE/Russia 2004), 5-9 July 2004, St.Petersburg- Pushkin, Russia, p

6 TASKS FACING TO WORKING GROUP OF THE ADAGIO ARI WORKING GROUP OF THE ADAGIO

7 Agrophysical Research Institute (in cooperation with State Hydrological Institute) will contribute the following activities: To promote dissemination of the ADAGIO advances and know-how in the aim of actual/potential adaptation of agriculture to climate change to further application in agricultural decision-making at different regions of Russia To promote dissemination of the ADAGIO advances and know-how in the aim of actual/potential adaptation of agriculture to climate change to further application in agricultural decision-making at different regions of Russia To instruct and learn agricultural managers and farmers as well as practical experts of local agricultural research centers on the use of appropriate and feasible potential adaptation measures and technologies in the framework of training course under ARI in the post-harvest period To instruct and learn agricultural managers and farmers as well as practical experts of local agricultural research centers on the use of appropriate and feasible potential adaptation measures and technologies in the framework of training course under ARI in the post-harvest period To consult agricultural enterprisers and farmers in the adaptation measures applying, the environmental and economic risks under climate change taken into consideration To consult agricultural enterprisers and farmers in the adaptation measures applying, the environmental and economic risks under climate change taken into consideration To recommend feasible adaptation strategies to agricultural policy-makers at regional/local levels as well as regionalization of know-how for further practical use To recommend feasible adaptation strategies to agricultural policy-makers at regional/local levels as well as regionalization of know-how for further practical use Monitoring of the use efficiency of adaptation measures and technologies in Russias regions to further application in agricultural sector of economy Monitoring of the use efficiency of adaptation measures and technologies in Russias regions to further application in agricultural sector of economy Collection, processing and analysis of information; integration of the ADAGIO project results, e.g. in the form of Recommendations for adaptation of agriculture in Russias regions at environmental risk under climate change Collection, processing and analysis of information; integration of the ADAGIO project results, e.g. in the form of Recommendations for adaptation of agriculture in Russias regions at environmental risk under climate change In this connection, the climatological design for regionalization of adaptation options within European part of Russia is illustrated. Regional adaptation measures and technologies at current climate regimes and with climate change are presented as well.

8 Climatological design for regionalization of adaptation measures and technologies in agricultural sector of economy within European part of Russia ( Nikolaev M.V., 2007) Region: European part of Russia north 61o n.1.(Type of climate: cool temperate, humid/sub-humid) North-Western Russia (Type of climate: temperate, humid) Central Russia (Type of climate: temperate, humid/sub-humid) Chernozem Centre and Middle Volga (Type of climate: temperate, semi-arid) Lower Volga and southern Pre-Ural (Type of climate: temperate, semi-arid/arid) Northern Caucasus (Type of climate: warm temperate, semi-arid/sub-humid)

9 Potential adaptation measures and technologies at current climate regimes and under climate change (Nikolaev and Uskov, 2007) North-Western Russia (Type of climate: Temperate, humid) Potential measures at current climate regimes with different durations Limitations at current climate regimes (vulnerabilities) Limitations under climate change (vulnerabilities) Examples for feasible adaptation measures and technologies AgroclimaticWeather Agro- ecological AgroclimaticWeather Agro- ecological Crop breeding Changes in sowing dates Crop rotation Fertilization Soil liming Drainage Crop insurance For wintering: water logging, rotting out For growing season: lodging Cold waves Wet spells Soil acidization Winter heavy precipitation Water logging (increase) Rotting out (increase) Cold waves (decrease) Wet spells (decrease) Soil acidization (decrease) Diseases, pests, weeds (increase) Plant breeding for highyielders of sillage maize Plant breeding for fiber flax Plant breeding for rape Plant breeding for sillage sunflower Plant breeding for clover varieties Switching from early season cultivars to mid-season cultivars Improvement of crop protection More diseases resistant cultivars More lodging resistant cultivars Chemical amelioration Change in optimum fertilization

10 Potential adaptation measures and technologies at current climate regimes and under climate change (Nikolaev and Uskov, 2007) Lower Volga and Southern Pre-Ural (Type of climate: Temperate, semi-arid / arid) Potential measures at current climate regimes with different durations Limitations at current climate regimes (vulnerabilities) Limitations under climate change (vulnerabilities) Examples for feasible adaptation measures and technologies AgroclimaticWeather Agro- ecological AgroclimaticWeather Agro- ecological Crop breeding Mulching Fertilization Snow retention Snow ploughing Irrigation Shelter belts Crop insurance For wintering: autumn drought, frost killing For growing season: droughts Heat waves Dust storms Wind erosion Soil salinizatio n (partly) Frost killing (decrease) Drought periods (increase) Dry winds (increase) Heat waves (increase) Dust storms (increase) Aridization Plant breeding for wheat durum Plant breeding for hard winter wheat Plant breeding for maize hybrids Plant breeding for millet Plant breeding for sorghum Switching from summer crops to winter crops Drought tolerant cultivars Change in optimum fertilization Change in irrigation rates Crops use less water Snowhedges New snow ploughing aggregats Wind break belts

11 Farmers and agricultural managers of Leningrad region (e.g. farm Rapti,high input level) Practical experts of regional/local agricultural research centres from different parts of Russia (in the framework of training course) Experts of NW Russias Research Centre for crop- and seed breeding Experts of Agrochemical Service of Leningrad region Members of Interregional Public Organization Association for assistance of field experiments and investigations Specialists of Agricultural Research institutions and Centres Teachers of Universities (agricultural, hydrometeorological and economic/financial profiles) List of end-users

12 NW Russias Agricultural Research Institute BELOGORKA NW Russias Agricultural Research Institute BELOGORKA ALL Russian Institute of Plant Industry VIR ALL Russian Institute of Plant Industry VIR NW Russias Research Centre of Russian Academy of Agricultural Sciences NW Russias Research Centre of Russian Academy of Agricultural Sciences All Russian Institute of Crop Protection VIZR All Russian Institute of Crop Protection VIZR Academy of Management and Agribusiness of Non- Chernozem zone of Rus.Fed. Academy of Management and Agribusiness of Non- Chernozem zone of Rus.Fed. St.Petersburg State Agrarian University St.Petersburg State Agrarian University Russian State Hydrometeorological University Russian State Hydrometeorological University Russian State University of Economics and Finance Russian State University of Economics and Finance List of involved institutions

13 Lecture series in the framework of Seminar of agricultural decision makers of the Southern district of Leningrad region (April, 2007) Lecture series in the framework of National School for Young Researchers/Practical Experts on Precision Agriculture Training course under Agrophysical Research Institute, St.Petersburg, September, 2007 Planned meetings

14 Thank you