Наперекор глобальному кризису Ноябрь 2007. Yaroslav Lissovolik · October 2007 · page 2 Изменение курса рубля: зависимость от притока капитала Deutsche. - презентация

1 Наперекор глобальному кризису Ноябрь 2007

2 Yaroslav Lissovolik · October 2007 · page 2 Изменение курса рубля: зависимость от притока капитала Deutsche Bank

3 Yaroslav Lissovolik · October 2007 · page 3 Борьба с кризисом ликвидности - основная задача В сложившейся ситуации оттока капитала поддержание ликвидности в банковском секторе становится основной задачей Банка России, при этом задача снижения инфляции отходит на второй план. Deutsche Bank

4 Yaroslav Lissovolik · October 2007 · page 4 ЦБ проводит регулярные вливания ликвидности Чтобы ослабить кризис ликвидности в банковском секторе ЦБ РФ прибегнул к операциям репо. По данным на 28 августа объем операций репо достиг своего максимума и составил более 272 млрд. руб. Deutsche Bank

5 Yaroslav Lissovolik · October 2007 · page 5 Долговая нагрузка корпораций РФ в сравнении с другими развивающимися рынками Долговая нагрузка российских корпораций ниже, чем у их конкурентов в развивающихся странах... …особенно это относится к металлургическому сектору. Deutsche Bank

6 Yaroslav Lissovolik · October 2007 · page 6 Россия – звезда развивающихся рынков Deutsche Bank

7 Yaroslav Lissovolik · October 2007 · page 7 Инфляция – фактор риска уровень инфляции в России выше, чем в большинстве развивающихся стран… …при этом уровень инфляции будет превышать 8% в течение следующих нескольких лет. Deutsche Bank

8 Yaroslav Lissovolik · October 2007 · page 8 10 факторов высокой инфляции в России Загрузка производственных мощностей (как трудовых ресурсов, так и капитала) Высокие мировые цены на нефть Высокие мировые цены на продовольствие Ограничения рынка труда на приток мигрантов Ограничения на импорт продовольствия Двузначный рост реальной заработной платы Отсутствие конкуренции/монополия в регионах Нехватка стерилизационных инструментов у ЦБ РФ Быстрый рост объема кредитов Рекордный уровень притока капитала/ПИИ/IPO по итогам первого полугодия 2007 г. Deutsche Bank

9 Yaroslav Lissovolik · October 2007 · page 9 Расходы значительно возрастут к концу года Рост государственных расходов в конце года – знакомая ситуация В этом году сезонность государственных расходов усугубилась предстоящими выборами Увеличение гос. расходов улучшит ситуацию с ликвидностью... …и будет способствовать переключению внимания ЦБ РФ с увеличения ликвидности на снижение инфляции Deutsche Bank

10 Yaroslav Lissovolik · October 2007 · page 10 Бюджет России на три года... Одним из важнейших шагов является принятие бюджета на три года Основные особенности: разделение нефтяных и ненефтяных доходных статей бюджета... Установлена верхняя планка нефтяных трансфертов. Deutsche Bank

11 Yaroslav Lissovolik · October 2007 · page 11 Зависимость от нефти слишком высока Нефть и газ составляют почти две трети российского экспорта... …таким образом диверсификация экономики является первоочередной задачей российского правительства. Deutsche Bank

12 Yaroslav Lissovolik · October 2007 · page 12 Дисбалансы в региональном развитии Москва составляет 20% ВВП России…...в то время как потребление на душу населения в два раза больше, чем в любом другом регионе Deutsche Bank

13 Yaroslav Lissovolik · October 2007 · page 13 Расслоение общества по доходам продолжается Несмотря на снижение количества живущих за чертой бедности, расслоение общества продолжается… …Путин назвал это самым большим упущением в экономической политике своего президентства Deutsche Bank

14 Yaroslav Lissovolik · October 2007 · page 14 Кто будет оплачивать растущие пенсии? Старение населения и нереформированная социальная система накладывают дополнительную нагрузку на пенсионную систему «проблема отцов и детей» обостряется в экономической сфере Deutsche Bank

15 Yaroslav Lissovolik · October 2007 · page 15 Последствия «гигантомании» Роль малого и среднего бизнеса в России все еще очень мала Однако мы отмечаем рост в последние годы, особенно в секторе услуг Deutsche Bank

16 Yaroslav Lissovolik · October 2007 · page 16 Выбор России - растущие инвестиции Увеличение объема инвестиций - главный результат 2006 года Рост в строительном секторе - основная движущая сила инвестиций в основной капитал Такого рода рост инвестиций наблюдался среди так называемых "Азиатских тигров" в предыдущие десятилетия Deutsche Bank

17 Yaroslav Lissovolik · October 2007 · page 17 Источники роста инвестиций в основной капитал Доля нераспределенной прибыли в финансировании инвестиций в основной капитал уменьшается Активность банков отражается на развитии реального сектора экономики IPO обеспечивают ощутимый приток капитала в компании Deutsche Bank

18 Yaroslav Lissovolik · October 2007 · page 18 ПИИ: новые рекорды Объем ПИИ достиг 30 млрд. долл. в 2006 г. (почти 3% от ВВП) …в сравнении с устойчиво низким уровнем менее 1% от ВВП в 1990-е гг. В первом полугодии 2007г. ПИИ в нефинансовый сектор достигли 24.6 млрд. долл. (методология ЦБ РФ) Deutsche Bank

19 Yaroslav Lissovolik · October 2007 · page 19 Основные двигатели роста финансовых рынков в 2008 году Поддержка инвестиционной инфраструктуры/подъем инвестиций: Инвестиционные фонды, Особые Экономические Зоны, Национальные Проекты Вступление в ВТО Фискальные/бюджетные расходы в конце 2007 – начале 2008 года Снижение уровня политического риска Риски: инфляция, индустриальная политика/государственный интервенционизм, несбалансированное развитие экономики Deutsche Bank

20 Yaroslav Lissovolik · October 2007 · page 20 Important Disclosures Additional Information Available upon Request Appendix 1 Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s) about the subject. In addition, the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Yaroslav Lissovolik For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at Deutsche Bank

21 Yaroslav Lissovolik · October 2007 · page 21 Regulatory Disclosures SOLAR Disclosure For select companies, Deutsche Bank equity research analysts may identify shorter-term trade opportunities that are consistent or inconsistent with Deutsche Banks existing longer-term ratings. This information is made available only to Deutsche Bank clients, who may access it through the SOLAR stock list, which can be found at Disclosures required by United States laws and regulations See company-specific disclosures above for any of the following disclosures required for covered companies referred to in this report: acting as a financial advisor, manager or co-manager in a pending transaction; 1% or other ownership; compensation for certain services; types of client relationships; managed/comanaged public offerings in prior periods; directorships; market making and/or specialist role. The following are additional required disclosures: Ownership and Material Conflicts of Interest: DBSI prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the analyst's area of coverage. Analyst compensation: Analysts are paid in part based on the profitability of DBSI, which includes investment banking revenues. Analyst as Officer or Director: DBSI policy prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts or members of their households from serving as an officer, director, advisory board member or employee of any company in the analyst's area of coverage. Distribution of ratings: See the distribution of ratings disclosure above. Price Chart: See the price chart, with changes of ratings and price targets in prior periods, above, or, if electronic format or if with respect to multiple companies which are the subject of this report, on the DBSI website at Deutsche Bank

22 Yaroslav Lissovolik · October 2007 · page 22 Additional disclosures required under the laws and regulations of jurisdictions other than the United States The following disclosures are those required by the jurisdiction indicated, in addition to those already made pursuant to United States laws and regulations. Analyst compensation: Analysts are paid in part based on the profitability of Deutsche Bank AG and its affiliates, which includes investment banking revenues Australia: This research, and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. EU: A general description of how Deutsche Bank AG identifies and manages conflicts of interest in Europe is contained in our public facing policy for managing conflicts of interest in connection with investment research. Germany: See company-specific disclosures above for (i) any net short position, (ii) any trading positions (iii) holdings of five percent or more of the share capital. In order to prevent or deal with conflicts of interests Deutsche Bank AG has implemented the necessary organisational procedures to comply with legal requirements and regulatory decrees. Adherence to these procedures is monitored by the Compliance-Department. Hong Kong: See for company-specific disclosures required under Hong Kong regulations in connection with this research report. Disclosure #5 includes an associate of the research analyst. Disclosure #6, satisfies the disclosure of financial interests for the purposes of paragraph 16.5(a) of the SFC's Code of Conduct (the "Code"). The 1% or more interests is calculated as of the previous month end. Disclosures #7 and #8 combined satisfy the SFC requirement under paragraph 16.5(d) of the Code to disclose an investment banking relationship. Japan: See company-specific disclosures as to any applicable disclosures required by Japanese stock exchanges, the Japanese Securities Dealers Association or the Japanese Securities Finance Company. Russia: The information, interpretation and opinions submitted herein are not in the context of, and do not constitute, any appraisal or evaluation activity requiring a licence in the Russian Federation. South Africa: Publisher: Deutsche Securities (Pty) Ltd, 3 Exchange Square, 87 Maude Street, Sandton, 2196, South Africa. Author: As referred to on the front cover. All rights reserved. When quoting, please cite Deutsche Securities Research as the source. Turkey: The information, interpretation and advice submitted herein are not in the context of an investment consultancy service. Investment consultancy services are provided by brokerage firms, portfolio management companies and banks that are not authorized to accept deposits through an investment consultancy agreement to be entered into such corporations and their clients. The interpretation and advices herein are submitted on the basis of personal opinion of the relevant interpreters and consultants. Such opinion may not fit your financial situation and your profit/risk preferences. Accordingly, investment decisions solely based on the information herein may not result in expected outcomes. United Kingdom: Persons who would be categorized as private customers in the United Kingdom, as such term is defined in the rules of the Financial Services Authority, should read this research in conjunction with prior Deutsche Bank AG research on the companies which are the subject of this research. Deutsche Bank

23 Yaroslav Lissovolik · October 2007 · page 23 Buy: Based on a current 12-month view of total shareholder return (TSR = percentage change in share price from current price to projected target price plus projected dividend yield), we recommend that investors buy the stock. Sell: Based on a current 12-month view of total shareholder return, we recommend that investors sell the stock. Hold: We take a neutral view on the stock 12 months out and, based on this time horizon, do not recommend either a Buy or Sell. Notes: 1. Newly issued research recommendations and target prices always supersede previously published research. 2. Ratings definitions prior to 27 January, 2007 were: Buy: Expected total return (including dividends) of 10% or more over a 12-month period Hold: Expected total return (including dividends) between -10% and 10% over a 12-month period Sell: Expected total return (including dividends) of -10% or worse over a 12-month period Equity Rating Key Equity Rating Dispersion and Banking Relationships Deutsche Bank

24 Yaroslav Lissovolik · October 2007 · page 24 Global Disclaimer The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or one of its affiliates (collectively Deutsche Bank). The information herein is believed by Deutsche Bank to be reliable and has been obtained from public sources believed to be reliable. With the exception of information about Deutsche Bank, Deutsche Bank makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. This published research report may be considered by Deutsche Bank when Deutsche Bank is deciding to buy or sell proprietary positions in the securities mentioned in this report. For select companies, Deutsche Bank equity research analysts may identify shorter-term opportunities that are consistent or inconsistent with Deutsche Bank's existing, longer-term Buy or Sell recommendations. This information is made available on the SOLAR stock list, which can be found at Deutsche Bank may trade for its own account as a result of the short term trading suggestions of analysts and may also engage in securities transactions in a manner inconsistent with this research report and with respect to securities covered by this report, will sell to or buy from customers on a principal basis. Disclosures of conflicts of interest, if any, are discussed at the end of the text of this report or on the Deutsche Bank website at Opinions, estimates and projections in this report constitute the current judgement of the author as of the date of this report. They do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Deutsche Bank and are subject to change without notice. Deutsche Bank has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise notify a reader thereof in the event that any matter stated herein, or any opinion, projection, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate, except if research on the subject company is withdrawn. Prices and availability of financial instruments also are subject to change without notice. This report is provided for informational purposes only. It is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction or as an advertisement of any financial instruments. The financial instruments discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own investment decisions using their own independent advisors as they believe necessary and based upon their specific financial situations and investment objectives. If a financial instrument is denominated in a currency other than an investors currency, a change in exchange rates may adversely affect the price or value of, or the income derived from, the financial instrument, and such investor effectively assumes currency risk. In addition, income from an investment may fluctuate and the price or value of financial instruments described in this report, either directly or indirectly, may rise or fall. Furthermore, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Derivative transactions involve numerous risks including, among others, market, counterparty default and illiquidity risk. The appropriateness or otherwise of these products for use by investors is dependent on the investors' own circumstances including their tax position, their regulatory environment and the nature of their other assets and liabilities and as such investors should take expert legal and financial advice before entering into any transaction similar to or inspired by the contents of this publication. Trading in options involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option investors must review the "Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options," at If you are unable to access the website please contact Deutsche Bank AG at +1 (212) , for a copy of this important document. Furthermore, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please note that multi-leg options strategies will incur multiple commissions. Unless governing law provides otherwise, all transactions should be executed through the Deutsche Bank entity in the investors home jurisdiction. In the U.S. this report is approved and/or distributed by Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a member of the NYSE, the NASD, NFA and SIPC. In Germany this report is approved and/or communicated by Deutsche Bank AG Frankfurt authorised by Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht. In the United Kingdom this report is approved and/or communicated by Deutsche Bank AG London, a member of the London Stock Exchange and regulated by the Financial Services Authority for the conduct of investment business in the UK and authorised by Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin). This report is distributed in Hong Kong by Deutsche Bank AG, Hong Kong Branch, in Korea by Deutsche Securities Korea Co. and in Singapore by Deutsche Bank AG, Singapore Branch. In Japan this report is approved and/or distributed by Deutsche Securities Inc. The information contained in this report does not constitute the provision of investment advice. In Australia, retail clients should obtain a copy of a Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) relating to any financial product referred to in this report and consider the PDS before making any decision about whether to acquire the product. Deutsche Bank AG Johannesburg is incorporated in the Federal Republic of Germany (Branch Register Number in South Africa: 1998/003298/10) Additional information relative to securities, other financial products or issuers discussed in this report is available upon request. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without Deutsche Bank's prior written consent. Please cite source when quoting. Copyright © 2007 Deutsche Bank AG03/2007 Deutsche Bank