Lecture on the 26 th of April Demographic statistics Demographic statistics. - презентация

1 Lecture on the 26 th of April Demographic statistics Demographic statistics

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3 Topics 1. Objectives of demographic statistics 2. Sources of demographic data 3. Population categories 4. Analysis of population changes 5. Population structure 6. Demographic reproduction 7. Life tables 8. Migration statistics 9. Demographic forecasting

4 Transparency 7-4 Demographic statistics Among the kinds of data that national leaders need are the demographic statistics of their population

5 While domestic product formation is studied by economic statistics, the demographic processes are studied by demographic statistics Population – is a set of persons living on certain territory (the world, the continent, the country or its part) at a concrete moment of time 1. Objectives of demographic statistics While domestic product formation is studied by economic statistics, the demographic processes are studied by demographic statistics Population – is a set of persons living on certain territory (the world, the continent, the country or its part) at a concrete moment of time

6 1. Objectives of demographic statistics The statistics studies the population as a social category, i.e. the set of persons living on a certain territory, and as an economic category, i.e. the participants of production process. The information is necessary for state regulation, management and manufacture (to estimate the sizes of manufacture of various kinds of products, public health services development, etc.) The statistics studies the population as a social category, i.e. the set of persons living on a certain territory, and as an economic category, i.e. the participants of production process. The information is necessary for state regulation, management and manufacture (to estimate the sizes of manufacture of various kinds of products, public health services development, etc.)

7 The population statistics solves the following primary tasks: 1. Counts population and its location on territory of the country 2. Characterizes population structure 3. Investigates reproduction processes – natural movement of the population 4. Considers mechanic movement (migration) of the population 5. Estimates a future number of population 6. Develops methods of statistical survey and analysis of demographic processes Objectives of demographic statistics

8 2. Sources of demographic data There are three main sources of demographic data: -administrative records of births, deaths, marriages, immigration and emigration ; it is called the current counting in Russia -population and housing censuses - population and household registers. These three sources, if well planned and executed, can be complementary in an integrated program of data collection and compilation. Social and demographic statistics are essential for planning and monitoring socio-economic development programs. Population composition by age and sex including geographical distribution are among the most basic data necessary to describe a population or/and a sub-group of a population. These basic characteristics provide the context within which other important information on social phenomena, such as education, disability, labour, health, nutrition, crime, fertility, mortality and migration, can be studied

9 2.1. Population censuses Population is an instant indicator characterizing number of persons, living on the given territory at concrete date. Demographic data characterizes a population at a certain date. The full and exact instant characteristic of number, structure and population distribution are gathered during population censuses. A regular census of population provides information that is key to making sound decisions about national policy

10 2.1. Population censuses Census is a single statistical survey specially organized at the state level, allowing to receive data from the population by individual interrogation of citizens at their residence. To expand collected data a census is supplemented by a sample survey when a number of additional questions is asked to a part of investigated population. Objects of investigation are the person, the family, the household. Population censuses supply the fullest and most exact information on number and structure of population. To ensure complete and accurate counting of population, it is necessary to provide some moment of time - usually on the 1st of January, on the 1st of July (mid-year estimation), and also at the critical moment of census

11 Transparency Population censuses A population census is the total process of collecting, compiling, evaluating and disseminating demographic, social and other data at a specified time covering all persons in a country or in a well-delimited part(s) of a country. It is a major source of social statistics, with its obvious advantage of providing data for small geographic units, which are not prone to sampling errors

12 Transparency Population censuses The census is an ideal method for providing information on size, composition and spatial distribution of the population in addition to socio- economic and demographic characteristics. In general the census collects information for each individual in households and each set of living quarters, usually for the whole country or well defined parts of the country

13 Transparency 7-13 Basic features of a population and housing census - Individuals in the population and each set of living quarters are enumerated separately and the characteristics thereof are recorded separately - Universality within a defined geographic area/territory. The population census potentially covers the whole population in a clearly defined territory. It should include every person present and/or usual residents depending on whether the type of population count is de facto or de jure. In the absence of comprehensive population or administrative registers, censuses are the only source that can provide small area statistics

14 Transparency 7-14 Basic features of a population and housing census -The enumeration has to be as simultaneous as possible. All persons and dwellings should be enumerated with respect to the same well- defined reference period -Censuses are usually conducted at defined intervals. Most countries conduct censuses every 10 years while others every five years. This facilitates the availability of comparable information at fixed intervals

15 Transparency 7-15 Uses of census results - Censuses provide information on size, composition and spatial distribution of the population together with demographic and social characteristics - They are also used as sources of sampling frames with some auxiliary information, which can be useful for sample selection and estimation in household survey - Censuses are a source of small area statistics

16 Transparency 7-16 Census results - Population censuses have been carried out in many countries during the past decades. For example, about 184 countries and areas have conducted or are planning to conduct censuses during the 2010 round ( )

17 One of the first states which have begun general and regular population censuses, were the USA (from 1790), Sweden, Finland (from 1800), England, Denmark, Norway, France (from 1801) and a number of other European countries. The first census based on scientific principles of population count, took place in Belgium in 1896 under the direction of Adolphe Quetelet. It was the first one-day census. It was a good example for the subsequent population censuses. Census is a very expensive action. In Russia it costs about 350 million dollars (10 bln rubles for the 2010 census) or 2,5 USD per person. Russian census is cheap enough: in Europe it costs from to 20 dollars per person 2.1. Population censuses

18 2.1. Russian censuses In our country population census were in 1897, 1920, 1926, 1937,1939, 1959, 1970, 1979, 1989 and Next population census should had been in the Russian Federation in 1999г., but in connection with difficult financial and economic situation it has been postponed for October The critical moment of census – 0.00 hours of the 9th of October, Registration took place from October, 9th till October, 16th. During the census all population of the Russian Federation was counted

19 Census of 2010 The All-Russia population census of 2010 will be at 0 hours on October, 14th. Interrogation will be conducted within 12 days from October, 14th till October, 25th to obtain two weekends when it is easier to find inhabitants at home

20 Transparency 7-20 The Emblem of the 2010 All- Russia population census

21 Transparency Census of 2010 We shall look thru the presentation concerning this population census now. The presentation was introduced by the vice Chief of Rosstat Surinov Alexander Evguenievich. Now he is the Chief of the Rosstat

22 2.2. Administrative records of vital events During intervals between censuses the count of born, died, im-migrated and emigrated persons on this or that territory allows to define a population on a basis of the data of last population census. In Russia natural movement of the population is considered through departments of the REGISTRY OFFICE (civil registrations). Each fact of death or birth, marriage and divorce is registered there. In each primary document it is fixed not only the fact of approach of event, but also data on the registered person

23 2.2. Administrative records of migration Mechanical movement is considered in militia passport offices. Registration carries announcement character – everyone arrived/left fills an arrival/leaving leaf The registration role the Federal Migration Agency increased substantially during last years. Thanks to its efforts the number of immigrants registered and as a result counted by the Rosstat grew significantly, and the official number of present Russian population became more stable

24 Transparency 7-24 Administrative records Many types of social statistics are compiled from various administrative records as by products of the administrative processes. Examples include health statistics compiled from hospital records, employment statistics from employment exchange services, vital statistics compiled from the civil registration system and education statistics from enrolment reports of the ministry of education The reliability of statistics from administrative records depends on the completeness of the administrative records and the consistency of definitions and concepts. It is therefore necessary to continuously improve and update the systems of recording, compiling and analysing such data. Wherever possible, it is advisable to use the same definitions and concepts used for other data sources. This would facilitate the comparability of data

25 Transparency 7-25 Administrative records While administrative records can be very cost-effective sources of data, such systems are not well developed in most developing countries. This implies that in a majority of cases such data are unreliable. Even if the administrative recording processes are continuous for purposes of administration, the compilation of statistics is, in most cases, secondary. Statistical requirements that need to be maintained such as standardisation of concepts and definitions, adhering to timeliness and complete coverage are not usually considered or adhered to

26 Transparency 7-26 For most countries, information from administrative records is often limited in content as their uses are more for legal or administrative purposes. Civil registration systems are examples of administrative systems that many countries have developed. However, not all countries have been successful in this effort. Countries with complete vital registration systems are able to produce periodic reports on vital events, such as number of live births by sex; date and place of births; number of deaths by age; sex; place of deaths and cause of death; marriages and divorces; etc. Administrative records

27 Transparency 7-27 In many developing countries, while administrative records for various social programmes can be cost- effective data source and an attractive proposition, they are not well developed. In this case their complementary use with other sources is a big challenge because of lack of standardized concepts, classification systems coupled with selective coverage and under coverage

28 2.3. The population register More than 70 countries of the world use population register. It is the distributed database on population. What information does usually contain in the register? There is the data of medical insurance, given to the car inspection, the pension fund, the police. A key parameter is used – a code, appropriated to each person (like the INN in Russia), and this parameter is presented at all records

29 Transparency 7-29 A population register maintains life databases for every person and household in a country. The register is updated on a continuous basis when there are changes in the characteristics of an individual and a household. If such registers are combined with other social registers they can be a source of rich information. Countries, which have developed such systems include Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands, Germany and Sweden. For most of these countries censuses are based on the registrer system Population register

30 Transparency 7-30 Household surveys Household sample surveys are key source of data on social phenomena. They are among the most flexible methods of data collection. In theory almost any subject can be investigated through household surveys. In sample surveys, part of the population is selected from which observations are made or data are collected and then inferences are made to the whole population. Because in sample surveys there are smaller workloads for interviewers and a longer time period assigned to data collection, there are possibilities of covering most subject matters in greater detail than in censuses

31 Transparency 7-31 Household surveys In addition, there is scope for training field staff more intensively. The reality is that not all the data needs of a country can be met through census taking, therefore, household surveys provide a mechanism for meeting the additional and emerging needs on a continuous basis. The flexibility of household surveys, therefore, makes them excellent choices for meeting data users needs for statistical information which otherwise would not be available and insufficient. Many countries have in place household survey programs, which include periodic and ad-hoc surveys. It is advisable that the household survey program should be part of an integrated statistical data collection system of a country. In the area of social and demographic statistics inter-censal household surveys can constitute part of this system

32 Transparency 7-32 There are different types of household surveys that can be conducted to collect data on social and demographic statistics such as specialized surveys, multi-phase surveys, multi-subject surveys, longitudinal surveys. The selection of a specific type of survey will depend on a number of factors including subject matter requirements, resources and logistical considerations Household surveys

33 Transparency 7-33 Specialized surveys cover single subjects or issues such as time- use or nutrition. The surveys may be periodic or ad-hoc (специальные). Multi-phase surveys entail collecting statistical information in succeeding phases with one phase serving as a precursor to the next. The initial phase usually constitutes a larger sample than subsequent phases. It is used to screen sample units based on certain characteristics to ascertain the eligibility of such units to be used in the subsequent phases. These surveys are a cost- effective way of reaching the target population in the latter phases to collect detailed information on a subject of interest. Demographic and Health surveys are among those suited to this approach Household surveys

34 Transparency 7-34 In multi- subject survey different subjects are covered in a single survey. This approach is generally more cost-effective than conducting a series of single subject surveys. In longitudinal surveys, data is collected from the same sample units over a period of time. The interval can be monthly, quarterly or annually. The purpose for conducting such surveys is to measure changes in some characteristics over a period of time. The major problem with this type of surveys is the high attrition (отсев) rate of respondents. There is also the problem of conditioning effect Household surveys

35 Transparency 7-35 While household surveys are not as expensive as censuses they tend to be costly especially if results have to be produced for relatively lower administrative domains. Because of the cost constraint of large household sample surveys, in practice most household surveys are limited in sample size. It would therefore be inappropriate to make inferences, based on such samples, for relatively small domains because standard errors would be very large rendering the results less precise Household surveys

36 Transparency 7-36 Some advantages of household surveys compared to censuses: a.The overall cost of a survey is generally lower compared to a census as the latter requires large amounts of manpower, financial, logistical and material resources. From a properly selected representative and implemented sample, accurate and reliable results can be a basis for making inferences on the total population. Consequently for some estimates such as total fertility rate, there is no compelling need for a census Household surveys

37 Transparency 7-37 Some advantages of household surveys compared to censuses: b. In general, sample surveys produce statistical information of better quality because it is more feasible to engage better and well-trained enumerators. It is also easier to provide better supervision because supervisors are usually well trained and the supervisor/ enumerator ratio can be as high as 1 to 4. In addition it is possible to use better measuring equipment in surveys if need arises. In a census data quality is, in some cases, compromised because of the massive nature of the exercise, which is prone to lapses in, and neglect of, quality assurance at various stages, resulting in high non-sampling errors. c. There is a greater scope and flexibility in a sample survey than in a census with respect to the depth of investigation and number of items in the questionnaire Household surveys

38 Transparency 7-38 Information of a more specialized type may not be collected in a census because of the prohibitive number of specialists or equipment necessary to carry out the study. An example is the weighing (взвешивания) of food and other measurements in a nutrition study. It is likewise, not feasible to subject every person in the population to a medical examination to collect data necessary for estimating HIV/AIDS infection. On the other hand, it is possible to add items in a household sample survey that would be relatively complex for the census Household surveys

39 Transparency 7-39 Complementarities of the three data sources The subject of combining information from different data sources has gained considerable attention in recent years. The interest in this area is driven by the necessity to limit census and survey costs and to lower response burden, to provide data at lower domains, which may not be covered by survey data for instance, and to maximize the use of available data in the country. Because censuses cannot be repeated frequently, household surveys provide a basis for updating some census information especially at national and other large domain levels. In most cases only relatively simple topics are investigated in a census and the number of questions is usually limited. Census information can therefore be complemented by detailed information on complex topics from the household surveys, taking advantage of their small size and potential flexibility

40 Transparency 7-40 Complementarities of the three data sources Censuses and household surveys have, in many instances, been complementary. For example, sampling has been applied at different stages of census activities such as pre-testing, enumeration and tabulation stages. Collecting information on additional topics from a sample of the population, or households during the census is a cost-effective way to broaden the scope of the census to meet the expanding demands of social statistics. The use of sampling methods and techniques makes it feasible to produce urgently needed data with acceptable precision when time and cost constraints would make it impractical to obtain such data through complete enumeration. Sample enumeration carried out within the census operation is able to collect data on additional topics and ask more detailed information

41 Transparency 7-41 On the other hand the census, among other things, provides a sampling frame, statistical infrastructure, statistical capacity (it is part of a fundamental statistical base of a country) and benchmark statistics that are needed in conducting household surveys. It is common to draw a sample of households within a census context, to collect information on more complex topics such as disability, maternal mortality, economic activity and fertility. Censuses support household surveys by providing frames and some auxiliary information for use in efficient design of surveys. Apart from provision of sampling frames, census information can be used to construct master samples. Further more auxiliary information from censuses can be used improve sample estimates through regression and ratio estimates, thereby improving the precision of survey estimates Complementarities of the three data sources

42 Transparency 7-42 In many countries, sampling frames for household surveys are based on population censuses. In general, the census provides an explicit list of all area units, such as enumeration areas, commonly used as first stage units in household sample surveys selection process. In order to achieve integration of data sources there is need to clearly identify units of enumeration and adopt consistent geographic units in collecting and reporting statistics through the various sources. In addition, it is essential to adopt common definitions, concepts and classifications across different sources of data. Data from household surveys can also be used to check, for instance census coverage and content. The aim is to determine the size and direction of such errors. Census data can be used to evaluate some survey results Complementarities of the three data sources

43 Transparency 7-43 Small area estimation, which has received a lot of attention due to growing demand for reliable small area estimators, is an area where data from surveys and administrative records are concurrently to produce estimates. Traditional area-specific direct estimators do not provide an adequate precision because sample sizes in small areas are seldom large enough. Small area estimation is based on a range of statistical techniques used to produce estimates for areas when traditional survey estimates for such areas are unreliable or cannot be calculated. The techniques involve models that borrow strength over space and time or from auxiliary information from administrative records or censuses. The basic idea of small area procedures is, therefore, to borrow and combine the relative strength of different sources of data in an effort to produce more accurate and reliable estimates Complementarities of the three data sources

44 Transparency 7-44 In countries with well-developed civil registration systems, census and survey data can be successfully used together with data from administrative records. In most such countries enumerators had pre- filled basic information, from administrative records, for every member of the household. This approach reduced interviewing time and enumeration costs. Since the register-based census provides only the total count of the population and basic characteristics of the population, detailed socio-economic characteristics are collected on a sample basis. Data from administrative records can be used to check and evaluate results from surveys and censuses. For instance in countries with complete vital registration systems, data on fertility and mortality from censuses can be crosschecked with that from the registration system Complementarities of the three data sources

45 Transparency 7-45 In conclusion, censuses, household surveys and administrative sources should be viewed as complementary. This implies that, whenever possible, in planning for censuses and surveys common concepts and definitions should be used. Administrative procedures should also be checked periodically to make sure that common concepts and definitions are being used The household survey program should be part of an integrated statistical data collection system within a country, including censuses and administrative records so that the overall needs for socio-demographic statistics can be adequately met Complementarities of the three data sources

46 During intervals between censuses a population estimation on the beginning of a year is made on the basis of the balance equation: S t+1 = S t + N t – M t + Im t – Em t, where S t+1 и S t - population in the years t+1 and t consiquently; Nt - number of born during this year; Mt - number of died during this year; Imt - number of arrived (immigrated); Emt – number of left (emigrated) During intervals between censuses a population estimation on the beginning of a year is made on the basis of the balance equation: S t+1 = S t + N t – M t + Im t – Em t, where S t+1 и S t - population in the years t+1 and t consiquently; Nt - number of born during this year; Mt - number of died during this year; Imt - number of arrived (immigrated); Emt – number of left (emigrated) 2.2. The balance of population

47 2.2. The Russian population number The population of the Russian Federation at the beginning of year, million persons: YearPopulation , , , , , , , , , ,9

48 2.2. The Russian population number In Russia live about 142 million people. For January, 1st, 2009 the population of Russia, according to Rosstat, was persons. Our country suffers depopulation – reduction of population number as a result of excess of death rate over birth rate which today is observed. The factors of depopulation: social and economic conditions; a high urban concentration

49 Transparency 7-49 Number of births

50 Transparency 7-50 Number of deaths

51 3. Population categories Number of inhabitants of the given settlement changes under the influence of births and deaths, mechanic movement (migration) of the population.Number of inhabitants of the given settlement changes under the influence of births and deaths, mechanic movement (migration) of the population. Within the limits of the population account in the given settlement we should distinguish four categories of the population: resident (constant, ) and present (available, ), two supplementing categories – temporary absent and temporary present population Within the limits of the population account in the given settlement we should distinguish four categories of the population: resident (constant, de jure) and present (available, de facto), two supplementing categories – temporary absent and temporary present population

52 3. Population categories Constant (resident) population RP - is a set of population which constantly live in the given settlement or on the given territory, irrespective of the actual location at the moment of the account. In some cases RP is called de facto population PresentPresent population PP - is a set of population who are actually being in the given settlement or on the given territory for the critical moment of census, irrespective of a place of their constant residing. In some cases PP is called de jure population

53 3. Population categories Temporary present TP – persons which were temporarily present during the count in the given settlement or locality (no longer than 6 months), however residing outside this place Temporary absent TA – resident persons which were absent in at the moment of the account (no longer than 6 months). Between these categories of the population there is an interrelation which is called balance of categories of the population: RP = PP – TP + TA or PP = RP – TA + TP

54 3. Population categories There is no essential difference between present and resident population, it is observed only in big cities. Data about number of the present population is necessary for the organization of work of municipal transportation, trade, water supply and so forth. The Resident population data is to be known for planning of building of habitation and establishments of social sphere. The Rosstat counts both present, and resident population

55 4. The population analysis Population is characterized by means of absolute and dynamic average indicators. An absolute indicator of population S is an instant indicator (for certain date), i.e. on January, 1st, on June, 1st, etc. The general change of a population: S= S t+1 – S t.

56 Changes in population are characterized by means of analytical and dynamic average indicators (absolute increase, rate of increase, rate of growth, average absolute increase for the period, average rate of increase for the period)

57 4. The population analysis 4.1. An average number of population The population (both in separate location, and in the state as a whole) within a year essentially varies, therefore for calculation of different indicators we need to define an average population for a year (or other interval of time). Methods of calculation of average number are similar to methods of calculation of an average level in instant dynamic numbers

58 4.1. An average number of population There can be some situations in which it is necessary to count up an average population. 1. There is data on the beginning and the end of period. For calculation the formula of average arithmetic mean is used:

59 4.1. An average number of population 2. If we have population numbers on some equidistant dates, calculation is made using the formula of simple chronological average:

60 4.1. An average number of population 3. Intervals between dates are not equal. The average chronological weighed formula is applied. We use as variants the data about average number S for time intervals between two neighbor dates, we use as weights the sizes of these intervals (duration of unequal intervals of time):

61 4.1. An average number of population or

62 5. Studying structure of the population Having defined population, statistics studies population structure, implementing the method of groupings for the whole country, and for its separate regions. The grouping is used to analyze social structure, kinds of economic activity, professions, sex and age structure, the marital status etc.

63 5.1. Territorial distribution The indicators which characterize the distribution of the population: - population density; - population on a separate territory; - the average size of the city settlements etc.

64 5.1. Territorial distribution In the Russian statistics the population is considered not only on the country as a whole, but also on separate administrative and territorial units. The Russian Federation consists of 21 republics, 9 regions, 46 provinces, 2 federal cities, 1 autonomous region, 4 autonomous provinces, 1867 areas, 1099 cities (including federal cities), 327 city areas and districts, 1318 settlements of city type, rural administrations and 24,2 thousand municipal unions

65 5.1. Territorial distribution For January, 1st, 2009 the Russian Federation had 11 cities with a population over 1 million persons: Moscow (10.5 million), St.-Petersburg (4.6), Novosibirsk (1.4), Ekaterinburg and Nizhni Novgorod (1.3), Samara, Omsk, Kazan, Chelyabinsk (1.1), Rostov-on-Don and Ufa (1)

66 5.1. Territorial distribution Geographic distribution on territory of population is characterised by number and density. Population density is the number of people per unit of area usually per square kilometer or mile (which may include or exclude cultivated or potentially productive area). Commonly this may be calculated for county, city, country, another territory, or the entire world

67 Transparency 7-67 Crowd in HK

68 5.1. Global population density The world population is 6.8 billion, and Earth's total area (including land and water) is 510 million square kilometers (197 million square miles). Therefore the worldwide human population density is 6.8 billion ÷ 510 million = 13.3 per km² (34.5 per sq. mile). If only the Earth's land area of 150 million km² (58 million sq. miles) is taken into account, then human population density increases to 45.3 per km² (117.2 per sq. mile). This calculation includes all continental and island land area, including Antarctica. If Antarctica is also excluded, then population density rises to 50 people per km² ( per sq. mile). Considering that over half of the Earth's land mass consists of areas inhospitable to human inhabitation, such as deserts and high mountains, and that population tends to cluster around seaports and fresh water sources, this number by itself does not give any meaningful measurement of human population density

69 5.1. Human population density Several of the most densely-populated territories in the world are city-states, microstates, micro-nations, or dependencies. These territories share a relatively small area and a high urbanization level, with an economically specialized city population drawing also on rural resources outside the area, illustrating the difference between high population density and overpopulation. Cities with high population densities are, by some, considered to be overpopulated, though the extent to which this is the case depends on factors like quality of housing and infrastructure and access to resources. Most of the most densely-populated cities are in southern and eastern Asia, though Cairo and Lagos in Africa also fall into this category

70 5.1. Human population density City population is, however, heavily dependent on the definition of "urban area" used: densities are often higher for the central municipality itself, than when more recently-developed and administratively unincorporated suburban communities are included, as in the concepts of agglomeration or metropolitan area, the latter including sometimes neighboring cities. For instance, Milwaukee Wisconsin, United States has a greater population density when just the inner city is measured, and not the surrounding suburbs as well

71 5.1. Other methods of density measurement While arithmetic density is the most common way of measuring population density, several other methods have been developed which aim to provide a more accurate measure of population density over a specific area. Arithmetic (physical) density: The total number of people / area of land (measured in km² or sq miles) The economic density: The water area and uninhabited lands are excluded. Physiological density: The total population / area of arable land Agricultural density: The total rural population / area of agricultural land Residential density : The number of people living in an urban area / area of residential land Urban density : The number of people inhabiting an urban area / total area of urban land Ecological optimum: The density of population which can be supported by the natural resources

72 5.1. Urban and rural population Division of the population is closely connected with territorial placing on urban and rural. Urban population are the persons living in cities and settlements of city type. Rural are all the others. In Russia an urban population share in the total population number is 73 %. Division of the population on agricultural and not agricultural is much more interesting. Here character of employment is occupied/unoccupied in agriculture and members of their families is considered. Share of not agricultural population in Russia is 86 %

73 Transparency 7-73 Greater Tokyo Area

74 Transparency 7-74 Sign in a rural area in Dalarna, Sweden

75 5.2. Sex and age structure The grouping on a sexual and age has a special role. The sexual and age structure of the population is important for knowing the characteristic of reproduction of the population and for needs of marketing. Basis for all age groupings is the population grouping on one-year age groups, is frequent for more compact representation use five years' age groups. Following age groups are used: - babies at the age up to 1 year - children of preschool age from a 1 year till 3 years; from 3 till 7 years - children of school age from 7 till 13 years (pre- teenager); from 13 to 15; from 15 to 17

76 5.2. Age structure Following age groups are used: -The population of working age: men in age years women in age years international classification – both sexes in age y. -Education age: 7-23 years -Fertility age: women at years -Pension age: women at 55 years and older men at 60 years and older

77 Transparency Sex ratio The ratio of males to females by age indicates the consequences of differing mortality rates on the sexes. Thus, while values above 1 are common for newborns, the ratio dwindles until it is well below 1 for the older population

78 5.2. Sexual and age structure A useful summary of such data is the population pyramid. It provides data about the sex and age distribution of the population in an accessible graphical format

79 5.2. Sexual and age structure Bar graphs are a handy way to illustrate numbers. For example, if we were to graph the number of males and females in Canada for various age groups according to the 1961 Census, the result would be the illustrations below

80 Transparency 7-80 Canada males in 2009

81 Transparency 7-81 Canada females in 2009

82 Transparency 7-82 Population pyramid If we were to display these graphs horizontally, make a mirror image of the one for women, and then join them together, we would have a population pyramid exactly as seen below

83 Transparency 7-83 Population pyramid

84 Transparency 7-84 Canadian population pyramid This population pyramid shows at a glance the distribution of the Canadian population in You can see that the pyramid narrows toward the top. This is because the death rate is higher among older people than among younger people

85 Transparency 7-85 Population pyramid Analyzing population pyramids and identifying trends, we can learn a lot about our society. These statistics give governments and others one of the tools they need to make informed decisions that will affect our lives today and in the future

86 Age - sexual structure of the population of the Russian Federation for January, 1st, 2009

87 Transparency 7-87 Population pyramids A population pyramid, also called "age pyramid", is a horizontal bar graph that illustrates the distribution of different age groups in a population, showing the number of males on the left and of females on the right Population pyramids

88 5.2. Sexual and age structure In separate group the able-bodied population – women from 16 till 54 years and the man from 16 till 59 years is allocated. The population grouping on age helps to solve various problems at definition of a contingent of preschool children, schoolboys, number of able-bodied population and the population is more senior able-bodied age.

89 5.3. Marriage structure To draw marriage structure we apply the following data: Middle marriage age: In Russia: men – 29, women – 27 years; Age of marrieds; Total number of marriages/divorces

90 Transparency 7-90 Number of marriages and divorces

91 5.3. Marriage structure The general ratios of marriage and divorce are the relation of number of marriages or divorces to a mid-annual population:

92 5.3. Marital ratios 1. Marriage ratio, showing the number of marriages per 1000 persons within a calendar year. 2. Divorce ratio, showing the number of divorces per 1000 persons within a calendar year. For example, in 2008 in Russia had 8,3 marriages and 5,0 divorces per each 1000 persons of the population

93 5.3. Marriage and divorce Ratio of marriage instability: For 2008 the Russian Federation had 703,4thousands/1178,7thousands= 0,597 (59,7 %) number of divorces number of marriages

94 5. Рopulation structure The structure of the population according the ethnic nationality is also studied. It is rather difficult to count persons by ethnic nationality since this feature is not registered in the actual Russian passport system, the ethnic nationality is a part of personal information which is reserved by the federal law. Population distribution on social groups, sources of means of existence is given in the subsequent lectures

95 6. Population reproduction Population reproduction is a change of one generations by others. Reproduction study is necessary for an estimation of a demographic situation, the analysis of tendencies and the demographic forecast

96 6.1. Studying the natural movement of the population Change of a population as a result of births and deaths is called natural movement of the population We study natural movement of the population by means of absolute and relative indicators

97 6.1. Natural movement Natural movement is characterized by the following absolute indicators: Number of births N, Number deaths M, Natural increase or decrease in population: ΔS nat =N - M These are interval indicators, usually they are calculated for a year

98 6.1. Natural movement Data across Russia for 2008 (thousand people): Number of births 1717,5 Number of deaths 2081,0 Natural decrease -363,5

99 6.1. Natural movement Relative indicators are used estimate the reproduction intensity, and carry out the comparative analysis. They are expressed in per mille and characterize phenomenon level per 1 thousand person.There are general (for all population) and special (for separate groups) indicators. General ratios of population change is the degree of change of average annual population under the influence of separate factors of change, they are calculated as the relation of a corresponding absolute indicator of population change to the average annual population number

100 The relative indicators of natural movement comprise the following indicators: birth rate, mortality rate, natural increase and viability rates All ratios, except the viability rate, are expressed in per mil, i.e. per 1000 persons of the population, and the viability rate is defined in percentage (i.e. on 100 persons of the dead population)

101 6.1.1.Birth rate shows the number of live births during a year on average per 1000 persons of average annual population:

102 6.1.2.Death (mortality) rate shows the number of deaths during a year on average per 1000 persons of average annual population:

103 Death rate First of all, the death rate depends on the age composition of the population. The mortality in the age groups (men and women, respectively) for Russia in 2007: years – 0,5 и 0, years – 8,5 и 2, years – 39,1 и 13,7 70 years and more – 98,6 и 73,8

104 6.1.3.Natural increase rate shows the size of natural increase (decrease) during a year on average per 1000 persons of average annual population. We can calculate it in two ways:

105 Data on Russia for 2008:

106 Viability rate by V. N. Pokrovsky is the ratio of births and deaths: The Viability rate characterizes population reproduction

107 The Viability rate shows the coordination of birth and mortality rates, it characterizes population reproduction или

108 Viability rate If the viability rate is less than 100%, the region's population is dying out, if it is higher than 100%, the population number of the region under analysis increases. In 2008 for the Russian Federation (in 2005 it was 63,3%, in 2007 – 77,4%):

109 6.2. Partial and special rates In addition to general reproduction rates demographic statistics uses partial and special rates for in-depth study of the reproduction processes. Partial rates are calculated per 1000 people of a certain age, gender, profession or any other group

110 1. Age fertility rate indicates the number of live births (total, boys and girls) on average per 1000 women of each age group 2. Special fertility rate shows the number of live births on average per 1000 women aged 15 to 49 years

111 6.2.Special fertility rate where: – average annual number of women at the fertility age, i.e. from 15 to 49 years

112 6.2.Special fertility rate There is connection between the general and the special birth rates: where – the share of women at the age from 15 to 49 years

113 The share of women at the age from 15 to 49 years:

114 4. Total fertility rate depends on the age composition of the population. It shows the average number of children that would be born by a woman throughout her life, if the existing birth rates maintain in every age group. In 2007 the rate amounted to 1,406 for the Russian Federation 3. Age-specific mortality rate shows the average number of deaths per 1000 population in a given age group.

115 6.2.1.Повозрастной коэффициент смертности рассчитывается делением числа умерших за соответствующий год в соответствующей группе на среднегодовую численность населения в этой группе: где Х – возраст или возрастной интервал, профессия или др.; Мх – количество умерших в возрасте х; Sx – средняя численность населения в возрасте х.

116 6.2.Частные коэффициенты Любой общий коэффициент можно представить как среднее арифметическое из частных коэффициентов, взвешенных по численности групп населения или их доле в общей численности:

117 6.2.Частные коэффициенты Таким образом, общий коэффициент зависит от частных коэффициентов и структуры населения. Это необходимо учитывать при сравнительном анализе смертности, рождаемости по территориям, специальным группам.

118 6.2.2.Коэффициент младенческой смертности Младенец – это ребенок в возрасте до 1 года. Поскольку младенческая смертность достаточно высокая и от нее зависит дальнейшая численность населения данной возрастной группы, статистика специально изучает этот феномен. Коэффициент младенческой смерти исчисляется в нескольких вариантах, поскольку год рождения и год смерти не всегда совпадают.

119 3. Коэффициент младенческой смертности, который вычисляется как сумма двух составляющих (в промилле): – первая – отношение числа умерших в возрасте до одного года из поколения, родившегося в этом году, для которого вычисляется коэффициент, к общему числу родившихся в этом же году; – вторая – отношение числа умерших в возрасте до одного года из поколения, родившегося в предшествующем году, к общему числу родившихся в предыдущем году. В 2007 г. этот показатель составлял в нашей стране 9,25

120 6.2.2.Коэффициент младенческой смертности Коэффициент младенческой смертности вычисляется как сумма двух составляющих (в промилле): – первая представляет собой отношение числа умерших в возрасте до одного года из поколения, родившегося в этом году, для которого вычисляется коэффициент, к общему числу родившихся в этом же году; – вторая выражена отношением числа умерших в возрасте до одного года из поколения, родившегося в предшествующем году, к общему числу родившихся в предыдущем году.

121 6.2.2.Коэффициент младенческой смертности где N 0 - число родившихся в прошлом году; N 1 - число родившихся в текущем году; М 0 - число умерших в возрасте до 1 года в данном году из числа родившихся в предыдущем году; М 1 - число умерших в возрасте до 1 года из числа родившихся в данном году.

122 6.2.2.Коэффициент младенческой смертности Две другие формулы:

123 6.2.2.Коэффициент младенческой смертности Данные по России за 2008 год: Умершие в возрасте до одного года – 14,5 тыс. Число детей, умерших в возрасте до одного года, на 1000 родившихся живыми – 8,5

124 6.2.Специальные коэффициенты - Коэффициент брачности, показывающий, сколько браков приходится на 1000 человек в течение календарного года - Коэффициент разводимости, показывающий, сколько разводов приходится на каждую тысячу населения в течение календарного года - Возрастной коэффициент рождаемости показывает число родившихся в среднем на 1000 женщин каждой возрастной группы

125 7. Изучение миграции населения Перемещение населения по территории называется механическим движением населения или миграцией населения миграция внутренняя (внутри страны) внешняя (за пределы страны)

126 Transparency 7-126

127 Анализ данных о миграции показывает, куда, откуда и в каком количестве происходят перемещения населения в стране

128 Миграция населения изучается с помощью абсолютных и относительных показателей. К абсолютным показателям относятся: 1. Число прибывших в данный населенный пункт (П). 2. Число выбывших из данного населенного пункта (В). 3. Механический прирост населения (МП = П – В)

129 Абсолютные показатели по России за 2008 г. 1. Число прибывших чел. 2. Число выбывших Механический прирост

130 К относительным показателям относятся коэффициент прибытия, коэффициент выбытия и коэффициент механического прироста. Приведенные ниже коэффициенты вычисляются в промилле, т. е. на 1000 человек населения

131 Коэффициент прибытия показывает, сколько человек прибывает в данный регион в среднем на каждую 1000 человек населения в течение календарного года:

132 7.Таблицы смертности Another summary is called the life table. For a cohort of persons born in the same year, it traces and projects their life experiences from birth to death. For a given cohort, the proportion expected to survive each year (or decade in an abridged life table) is presented in tabular or graphical formlife table Подробное изучение процессов воспроизводства осуществляется с помощью таблиц смертности [1]. Они строятся для одного условного поколения (родившихся в одном году) на основе повозрастных коэффициентов смертности и показывают, как постепенно с увеличением возраста оно выбывает под влиянием смертности, т.е. показывает порядок вымирания этого поколения.[1] В таблице смертности показывается изменение численности условного поколения при переходе от возраста к возрасту только под влиянием смертности. Расчет показателей таблицы смертности основан на том, что на всем протяжении жизни изучаемого поколения уровень смертности в отдельных возрастных группах будет соответствовать реальному уровню смертности на момент составления таблицы. [1] В зарубежной статистике они также называются таблицами продолжительности жизни и таблицами жизни (франц.-tableaux de mortalité, англ.-life tables).

133 Ожидаемая продолжительность жизни при рождении – один из важнейших показателей, рассчитываемых в международной демографической статистике. Он показывает число лет, которое в среднем предстояло бы прожить человеку из поколения родившихся при условии, что на протяжении всей жизни этого поколения половозрастная смертность останется на уровне того года, для которого вычислен этот показатель. Он рассчитывается с помощью составления и анализа таблиц смертности, в которых для каждого поколения вычисляется численность выживших и умерших

134 8. Расчет перспективной численности населения В промежутках между переписями численность населения отдельных населенных пунктов определяется расчетным путем на основе данных последней переписи и данных текущей статистики о естественном и механическом движении населения по балансовой схеме: Численность населения на начало года + Число родившихся за год + Число прибывших за год – Число умерших за год – Число выехавших за год = Численность населения на конец года

135 Для планирования многих народно- хозяйственных показателей очень важно знать численность населения на планируемый период. Ожидаемая продолжительность жизни россиянина в 2010 году должна составить 68,5 лет

136 Данные по России за 2007 год – 67,5 лет, мужчины 61,4, женщины -73,9 лет

137 Перспективная численность населения рассчитывается на основе данных о естественном и механическом приросте населения за определенный период и предположения о сохранении выявленных закономерностей на прогнозируемый отрезок времени

138 Коэффициент общего прироста населения (КО.П) рассчитывается следующим образом: КО.П = Крожд – Ксм + Кпр – Квыб = =КЕ.П + КМ.П

139 где Нn – численность населения на начало планируемого периода; t – число лет, на которые прогнозируется расчет; КО.П – коэффициент общего прироста населения Перспективная численность населения определяется по формуле,

140 Также возможен расчет перспективной численности населения с помощью среднегодового абсолютного прироста населения за период ( ) и среднегодового коэффициента роста за период ( ): или

141 Возможны более сложные расчеты перспективной численности населения – методом экстраполяции по аналитическим формулам или методом передвижки возрастов

142