Vladislav Lutskov General Director MIEL Analytic Consulting Centre (MIEL ACC) September 2008 Moscow Russian Real Estate Market Overview THE FINE ART OF. - презентация

1 Vladislav Lutskov General Director MIEL Analytic Consulting Centre (MIEL ACC) September 2008 Moscow Russian Real Estate Market Overview THE FINE ART OF REAL ESTATE

2 Russian Real Estate Market Overview | Vladislav Lutskov | September 2008 Практика стиля / И. О. Фамилия Table of contents 1. Real Estate as Investment instrument 2.Posture in commercial and residential real estate markets: Office Premises Retail Premises Exhibition Premises Residential Estate - Supply & Demand Mortgage Lending 2

3 Russian Real Estate Market Overview | Vladislav Lutskov | September 2008 Практика стиля / И. О. Фамилия Investment Instruments 3

4 Russian Real Estate Market Overview | Vladislav Lutskov | September 2008 Практика стиля / И. О. Фамилия Commercial Real Estate: Office Premises Offices construction and supply in Moscow, ths.sq.m. Average rental rates (offices), Moscow, Offices will be actively developed in Moscow and other cities of Russia (population > 1 million) during the next 4 years. MIEL ACC forecasts NON-REALIZED DEMAND ca. 2,2 mln sq. M OF OFFICE PREMISES in Moscow by

5 Russian Real Estate Market Overview | Vladislav Lutskov | September 2008 Retail premises market development stages: – Market saturates in major cities (population > 1 million) – Developers migrate to smaller towns (population > 300 ths.) Perspective – Retail business formats change for new perspective directions Практика стиля / И. О. Фамилия Commercial Real Estate: Retail Premises 5 Trade Centers construction and supply in Moscow as of 1H 2008, ths.sq.m MIEL ACC forecasts NON-REALIZED DEMAND ca. 1,4 mln sq. m OF RETAIL REAL ESTATE in Moscow by 2013

6 Russian Real Estate Market Overview | Vladislav Lutskov | September 2008 Практика стиля / И. О. Фамилия Moscow There are ca. 414,8 ths.sq.m of closed display premises in Moscow today Moscow exhibition centres that meet morden standards: Crocus Expo, Expocentre, All- Russia exhibition centre, Sokolniki Exhibition premises development prospects in Moscow: increase at 19,8 % within next 5 years Russia MIEL ACC forecasts NON-REALIZED DEMAND ca. 680 ths. sq. m OF EXHIBITION PREMISES in Moscow by 2013 Commercial Real Estate: Exhibition Premises 6 Exhibition Premises of Russia, ths. sq.m St.Petersburg Rostov-on-Don Yekaterinburg Krasnoyarsk Nizny Novgorod Krasnodar

7 Russian Real Estate Market Overview | Vladislav Lutskov | September 2008 Практика стиля / И. О. Фамилия Residential Estate: Supply&Demand Residential area per person, sq.m migrant families have arrived in Moscow during 10 last years apartments are to be built per year in Moscow to supply migration demand specifically, while apartments are offered for sale only Russian residents are willing to improve the conditions of living Housing stock of RF equals about 3 billion sq.m, including 3.2% of ramshackle housing and those under the threat of collapse 7

8 Russian Real Estate Market Overview | Vladislav Lutskov | September 2008 Практика стиля / И. О. Фамилия 8 Residential Estate: Supply Average price on residential market & cost of construction Average price of supply in Moscow & regions Source: MIEL ACC

9 Russian Real Estate Market Overview | Vladislav Lutskov | September 2008 Практика стиля / И. О. Фамилия Demand for better living conditions Low High / average New residential estate construction, ths.sq.m MIEL ACC forecasts NON-REALIZED DEMAND ca. 60 mln sq. m of RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE in Moscow by Residential Estate: Demand Demand saturation

10 Russian Real Estate Market Overview | Vladislav Lutskov | September 2008 Mortgage Lending Trends in Russia Практика стиля / И. О. Фамилия Mortgage loans Mortgage lending in regions of Russia Source: Central Bank of Russian Federation, Eurotrustbank 10 Moscow and Moscow region Tumen region Saint-Peterburg Novosibirsk region Sverdlovsk region Share of mortgages in Russia & USA, GDP Mortgage volume growth in 2007: 111% Issued mortgage loans as for the 1H2008: $14,5 bln Mortgage transactions share growth among purchase and sale transactions (Moscow region) 2006 – from 10 % to 15% 2007 – from 15 % to 20% 2008 – expected growth to 25%