Climate change, vulnerability, and adaptation in agriculture – the situation and state of art in Russia Natalia Lemeshko Tatiana Gronskaya State Hydrological Institute State Hydrological Institute 2-nd Liniya 23 2-nd Liniya 23 St.Petersburg St.Petersburg Russia Russia Tel. 7(812) Tel. 7(812) Fax: 7(812) Fax: 7(812)

During last decades the respond of environment in the different regions of the world to the global warming has become very urgent. Empirical data for the last century indicate that positive trend of the global average annual air temperature was about 0.06 ±0.03°C per decade since the late of the 19th century, while the trend for Russia and for the European part of Russia have been somewhat larger: ºС/decade

Regional patterns of air temperature, precipitation, evaporation, soil moisture content and river runoff Have been studied for the last four decades on the background of the global climate change. Have been studied for the last four decades on the background of the global climate change. About 50 analyzed meteorological, hydrological and water balance stations are distributed evenly over the study area About 50 analyzed meteorological, hydrological and water balance stations are distributed evenly over the study area

Mainly positive air temperature changes are observed over the European Part of Russia for last three decades ( linear trend) Station seasons XII-IIIII-VVI-VIIIIX-XIyear Petersburg Kirov (Vyatka) Novgorod Biser Bezhetsk* Valdai * Pskov* Kazan' Yelabuga Zlatoust Yelat'ma Roslavl * Penza Vasilevichi * Oktyabr'sky gorodok Bogoroditskoe-Fenino* Kamennaya Step * Poltava * Uman' Gur'ev Rostov-na-Donu Yalta Krasnovodsk

Air temperature changes ( linear trend) over the European Territory of Russia N for Station latitude N longitude E seasons winterspringsummerautumnyear Murmansk Nar'yan-Mar Kem' Port Arkhangelsk Troitsko-Pechorskoje Shenkursk Petrozavodsk*

Air temperature changes over the European Territory of Russia for ( linear trend) N Kirov (Vyatka) Novgorod Biser Bezhetsk* Valdai* Pskov* Kazan' Yelabuga Zlatoust Yelat'ma Roslavl' * Penza Vasilevichi * Oktyabr'sky gorodok Bogoroditskoe-Fenino* Kamennaya Step' *

Air temperature changes over the European Territory of Russia for ( linear trend) N Poltava * Uman' Gur'ev Rostov-na-Donu Yalta Krasnovodsk

annual air temperature for the past years shows the tendency to increasing for practically all territory of European Russia, mostly caused by positive trends annual air temperature for the past years shows the tendency to increasing for practically all territory of European Russia, mostly caused by positive trends of winter (January-February), of winter (January-February), spring and spring and summer in the area northward 55 N. summer in the area northward 55 N.

We have calculated anomalies of air temperature and precipitation for the Northern Hemisphere for from mean for winter Air temperature anomalies for

Air temperature anomalies for summer

Warm period duration The process of warming is evaluated in the growth of the period of air temperature higher than 0 and 10 0 C in spring and fall. These periods are very significant for the runoff forming and mass transport by rivers. Killing et al. shows that beginning from the end of 60-es the duration of the vegetation period at high latitudes has grown more than 7 days. Mirvis et. al. analysed a linear trends of the series of dates of a persistent change of air temperature through 0, 5 and 10 0 C in spring and autumn on the former USSR territory for the period. The authors shows that most significant is a tendency for an earlier spring change of temperature through 0 0 C ( it is about 10 days during a century). The process of warming is evaluated in the growth of the period of air temperature higher than 0 and 10 0 C in spring and fall. These periods are very significant for the runoff forming and mass transport by rivers. Killing et al. shows that beginning from the end of 60-es the duration of the vegetation period at high latitudes has grown more than 7 days. Mirvis et. al. analysed a linear trends of the series of dates of a persistent change of air temperature through 0, 5 and 10 0 C in spring and autumn on the former USSR territory for the period. The authors shows that most significant is a tendency for an earlier spring change of temperature through 0 0 C ( it is about 10 days during a century).

Frost Days In northern part there is an evidence of decreasing number of frost days, which appears to be associated with strong increase in winter temperature. On the other hand, there is the expansion of frost free period to the north (Mirvis, 2004). In northern part there is an evidence of decreasing number of frost days, which appears to be associated with strong increase in winter temperature. On the other hand, there is the expansion of frost free period to the north (Mirvis, 2004). Extremely high summer temperatures are recorded more frequently, especially in recent decades (e. g., in the Leningrad region and Karelia mean monthly temperature in June 1999 firstly exceeded the normal value by 5ºС). Extremely high summer temperatures are recorded more frequently, especially in recent decades (e. g., in the Leningrad region and Karelia mean monthly temperature in June 1999 firstly exceeded the normal value by 5ºС).

Changes in precipitation totals have not any clear tendency over the area under study for last decades The proves to be the wettest decade for the European part of Russia and corresponds to humid conditions in the 1920s. The proves to be the wettest decade for the European part of Russia and corresponds to humid conditions in the 1920s.

Trends in seasonal precipitation for

Annual precipitation (mm) anomalies Slight upward tendency prevails for winter period and downward tendency period and downward tendency – for the other seasons. Annual precipitation anomalies for from the norm for from the norm for are mm (10-20 % from mean)

Annual precipitation anomalies for in % from mean for

Soil moisture and evaporation rate. According o this slight increasing in precipitation were observed According o this slight increasing in precipitation were observed 1. increase of soil moisture content in the forest and steppe zones 1. increase of soil moisture content in the forest and steppe zones 2. for the past years 2. positive tendencies in evaporation from the soil for the past years

Soil moisture changes in the taiga (a), forest (b) and steppe (c) for the past years 1 - norms, 2 - linear trend VALDAI WBS (taiga ) PODMOSKOVNAYA WBS, forest KAMENNAYA STEPPE WBS, steppe

Changes in evaporation from the soil and water surfaces in natural zones for the past years

Water resources The change of the hydrological regime, and especially of annual and seasonal water discharge is one of the most actual and important consequences of the global climate change from the practical point of view. The rivers runoff is very sensitive to climate changes, and immediately responds to it. The phase of high runoff is observed for the main part of the European Russia for the last two decades. The most sensitive growth of annual runoff (15-40%) is recorded for the catchments, located between 560 и 600 N (rivers of the western part of ER, rives inflowing the Volga in its upper and middle flow, and the river Kama catchment).

Annual runoff ( ) for Baltic region have been studied for 65 rivers including Finland and Sweden 1- Positive statistically significant trends Positive tendencies 3- negative 3- negative tendencies 4-no data 4-no data Positive statistically significant trends prevail for the most rivers in Russia and the Baltic countries excluding Neman as well as for the northern Swedish rivers inflowing the Bothnian Bay. Practically all other rivers of the study area exhibit positive tendencies, though not statistically significant. Negative tendencies (but not statistically significant) are shown only by 4 rivers Eman, Gide, Lagan in Sweden and Kalvianjoki in Finland.

The prevailing tendency of mean annual runoff for the majority of rivers on the territory of Russia - increasing -by about The prevailing tendency of mean annual runoff for the majority of rivers on the territory of Russia - increasing -by about 30% for the Annual runoff of the Don river In the South of European Russia have been observed decrease of water resources by %

The water supply is one of most demanded resource for agriculture in the dry and semi-dry zones Water-used for irrigation and other demands for agricultural productivity. Russia, % from mean Water-used for irrigation and other demands for agricultural productivity. Russia, % from mean As the water supply is one of the most significant resources for agriculture in the arid and semi-arid zones, the most hot point situation is observed in the southern areas of Russia, as there is a growing gap between decreasing water resources and increasing demands for water supply. Decrease in water use for irrigation is shown in Fig

Underground water The growth of underground water table is sufficient in some regions of the middle and the northern Russia, so, early a thousand of small cities and millions of hectares of lands are influenced by underground water flooding in the Moscow region. In the southwestern parts of ER water table is falling. The growth of underground water table is sufficient in some regions of the middle and the northern Russia, so, early a thousand of small cities and millions of hectares of lands are influenced by underground water flooding in the Moscow region. In the southwestern parts of ER water table is falling.

Climate change Climate varies in temperature, precipitation and the frequency of extremes, Climate varies in temperature, precipitation and the frequency of extremes, such as drought, storms and floods. These affect on productivity of natural and agricultural systems, bushfire frequency, water quality and damage to property and infrastructure. such as drought, storms and floods. These affect on productivity of natural and agricultural systems, bushfire frequency, water quality and damage to property and infrastructure. The emerging view from the long-term climate record is important to modern societies because it provides a basis for understanding recent trends and their potential causes ( The emerging view from the long-term climate record is important to modern societies because it provides a basis for understanding recent trends and their potential causes ( International Year of Planet Earth. Ear t h s c i e n c e s f o r s o c i e t y, From the climate point of view: From the climate point of view: Same as it ever was ? It is all too easy to fall into the trap of thinking that recent events are more extreme than those of the past.

the Medieval Warm Period The Northern Hemisphere record shows relatively mild temperatures during the late 11th and 12th Centuries, and in the early and late 14th Century. Little Ice Age Mean temperatures were cooler than present from the early 14th to 19th Centuries. Historical records show - both had significant effects on societies. In warm periods wheat production occurred further north, and wine production was possible earlier in the season. In the Little Ice Age illness rates and agricultural decline in marginal areas was significant. The temperature anomalies were no more than 0.2 to 1°C from those in the earlier part of the 20th Century. These small changes in mean temperature and their impacts are a telling point for sceptics who write off any significance for the 1-5°C changes that are projected for the next 50 to 100 years. The second half of the 20th Century stands out as a particularly warm period.

Many great civilizations have collapsed for a variety of reasons, including climate. Drought may have been responsible for the collapse of the Harrappan culture of northwest India, the Maya of Central America and the Hohokam of Arizona. In other parts of the world too much water has been a problem. Peak water flow in the Yangtze, for example, occurs when run-off from the Tibetan Plateau coincides with summer monsoon rain. Serious floods occur every few years causing loss of life, crops and property – though these same floods bring fresh nutrient-rich sediments. During the Holocene people have battled rising waters with engineering works and where these failed the failure of rice crops has led to great hardship. Meanwhile in the Yellow River valley a combination of climate variability and pressure of land use has led to desertification in the north west and retraction of settlement towards the south east. Desertification continues today and the Chinese Government continues to relocate people and livestock. Bringing together the great data sets of environmental change and history of societies will inform debates on technological innovation, early nation states, and may even help us understand some of the long-standing animosities between peoples in the Middle East, east Africa and elsewhere. Climate and associated cultural changes (from Alverson et al. 2003).

The future climate will impact on food security and agriculture, water The future climate will impact on food security and agriculture, water supply and quality, storm and cyclone frequency, shoreline stability, supply and quality, storm and cyclone frequency, shoreline stability, biodiversity and the future of biological resources. Developing climate biodiversity and the future of biological resources. Developing climate models will reduce the degree of uncertainty in regional climate prediction. models will reduce the degree of uncertainty in regional climate prediction. However only the geological record can reveal the full range of Earth However only the geological record can reveal the full range of Earth System variability and in the first instance remains a test bed for whether System variability and in the first instance remains a test bed for whether simulations are likely to be reasonable. simulations are likely to be reasonable. Earth scientists have a distinguished record of studying past climates and Earth scientists have a distinguished record of studying past climates and Earth systems, often studying the relationship between the two. Society may Earth systems, often studying the relationship between the two. Society may well ask them to focus part of their research agenda on identifying how a well ask them to focus part of their research agenda on identifying how a variety of scenarios, which directly affect the life chances of people, will play variety of scenarios, which directly affect the life chances of people, will play out through those systems. Good leadership will lead to informed decision out through those systems. Good leadership will lead to informed decision making and prudent planning. Earth scientists might be asked to forecast any making and prudent planning. Earth scientists might be asked to forecast any potential abrupt or environmental surprises. A sound knowledge of the Earth potential abrupt or environmental surprises. A sound knowledge of the Earth System will improve the chances of achieving this. System will improve the chances of achieving this. It might be fitting to remember an old Chinese proverb: It might be fitting to remember an old Chinese proverb: Things will be different FROM today…and we will do Things will be different FROM today…and we will do things differently…thus it has always been and things differently…thus it has always been and ALWAYS will be. ALWAYS will be. This embodies ideas both about the Earth and those who live on it. This embodies ideas both about the Earth and those who live on it.

Projected climate change. Following the hypothesis of global warming we should live in warmer climate in the nearest future. GSM and empirical scenarios suggest that for Russia: air temperature will increase by 1-4 o C and even more in winter in the northern part of area. There is still no clarity in the problem of precipitation behavior: some climatologists forecast that precipitation will increase all over the study area, others – decrease in south and increase in northern regions. GSM and empirical scenarios suggest that for Russia: air temperature will increase by 1-4 o C and even more in winter in the northern part of area. There is still no clarity in the problem of precipitation behavior: some climatologists forecast that precipitation will increase all over the study area, others – decrease in south and increase in northern regions.

Water resources River runoff is expected to increase in the north by 10-15%, with the appropriate increase of water resources by 15-25%. River runoff is expected to increase in the north by 10-15%, with the appropriate increase of water resources by 15-25%. In the southern part of the European Russia river runoff will decrease by 5-15%, that should lead to the deficit of water supply~ 10%. In the southern part of the European Russia river runoff will decrease by 5-15%, that should lead to the deficit of water supply~ 10%.

The most dramatic situation is expected in the Northern Caucasus region and in the Rostov, Volgograd, Krasnodar and Stavropol regions, where decrease of water resources by 5% will result in the increase of water demand and pressure to water resources. The most dramatic situation is expected in the Northern Caucasus region and in the Rostov, Volgograd, Krasnodar and Stavropol regions, where decrease of water resources by 5% will result in the increase of water demand and pressure to water resources. In dry years in the Belgorod and Kursk regions the water supply would be about cub.m per year per person that classifies as very low, or even disastrously low by the international classification. In dry years in the Belgorod and Kursk regions the water supply would be about cub.m per year per person that classifies as very low, or even disastrously low by the international classification.

Groundwater level is expected to rise in some regions by 1 m. Groundwater level is expected to rise in some regions by 1 m.

So the main peculiarity of the Russian water resources: that is its uneven distribution over the countrys area not meeting with water demand, will increase in the nearest future. As a matter of fact the problems of water supply should be especially urgent, demanding complex measures for their solving. So the main peculiarity of the Russian water resources: that is its uneven distribution over the countrys area not meeting with water demand, will increase in the nearest future. As a matter of fact the problems of water supply should be especially urgent, demanding complex measures for their solving.

Прогноз изменений водообеспеченности и нагрузки на водные ресурсы в % в сравнении с современным уровнем (номера регионов соответствуют гидроклиматическим регионам) В числителе - изменение водообеспеченности В знаменателе – изменение нагрузки на водные ресурсы

Climate change: consequences for agriculture, economics and humans in Russia. Vulnerability. As the global warming is the part of global environment change, even very insignificant up- to date and expected in future increase of the mean global temperature by 1-2oC will be the reason of different natural hazards becoming more frequent. This effect is already observed in the past years since the appropriate information is gathered (Fig. 4) (Osipov, 2001). This information includes: 27% - storms, 25%- droughts, 25%- dry winds and fires, 19% -floods. As the global warming is the part of global environment change, even very insignificant up- to date and expected in future increase of the mean global temperature by 1-2oC will be the reason of different natural hazards becoming more frequent. This effect is already observed in the past years since the appropriate information is gathered (Fig. 4) (Osipov, 2001). This information includes: 27% - storms, 25%- droughts, 25%- dry winds and fires, 19% -floods.

During : 27% - storms, 25%- droughts, 25%- dry winds and fires, 19% -floods. The number of natural disasters in Russia. (by MES of Russia).

weather and hydrological extremes Climate warming is also associated with weather and hydrological extremes. Recent scientific studies indicate that the water-related hazards make up 69% of ecological disasters (Hydrometeorological disaster…, 2004). Climate warming is also associated with weather and hydrological extremes. Recent scientific studies indicate that the water-related hazards make up 69% of ecological disasters (Hydrometeorological disaster…, 2004). Among these disasters, the main part is connected with droughts (52%) and 11% with floods. The analysis of information on extreme events over ER from official publications makes it possible to conclude that the number of those, influencing agroecological environment, has increased almost twice from 1999 to Among these disasters, the main part is connected with droughts (52%) and 11% with floods. The analysis of information on extreme events over ER from official publications makes it possible to conclude that the number of those, influencing agroecological environment, has increased almost twice from 1999 to The largest economic losses are from floods (about 41,6 bln rubls). About 7 mln sq. km agricultural lands are subjected to floods. (Taratunin, 2000) The largest economic losses are from floods (about 41,6 bln rubls). About 7 mln sq. km agricultural lands are subjected to floods. (Taratunin, 2000)

Number of floods for 1990 по 2004 European Russia The largest economic losses are from floods and account about 41,6 mln rubls. There are in Russia about 7 mln sq. km agricultural lands under floods. (Taratunin, 2000)

Number of floods for 1990 по 2004 Asia data of Gidrometcentr

Floods in the regions In the humid zone a disaster of floods here is higher than disaster of catastrophic decrease of water resources resulting in dramatic consequences for human being. In the humid zone a disaster of floods here is higher than disaster of catastrophic decrease of water resources resulting in dramatic consequences for human being. One of the most floodable regions is Lake Ilmen. For instance, in April 1994 the sharp increase of lakes level by 4 m flooded Velikiy Novgorod and populated areas over the Volkhov river valley. There are about 100 villages and 12 state farms in the flood zone annually, but the economic losses estimates are not published thought they are surely significant. One of the most floodable regions is Lake Ilmen. For instance, in April 1994 the sharp increase of lakes level by 4 m flooded Velikiy Novgorod and populated areas over the Volkhov river valley. There are about 100 villages and 12 state farms in the flood zone annually, but the economic losses estimates are not published thought they are surely significant.

In 1991, intensive spring snowmelt of significant snow resources caused the inflow to the Volga- Kama Reservoirs equal to 1,8-3 of normal. As a result, the inflow to reservoirs of the Volga-Kama cascade was 50 % higher than mean value (mean value is equal 66 cub. km, inflow in 1991 was 96,8 cub.km). The extremely high discharge through the Volgograd Hydropower Plant dam has caused the flood at the Low Volga River. As the result the vast areas have been flooded, 102 dams have been destroyed. The total economic losses has been equal to 552,5 million rubles for the Volgograd, Astrakhan, Ulyanovsk, Nizhniy Novgorod and Saratov regions, the Tatar and Chuvash Republics (Taratunin, 2000). In 1991, intensive spring snowmelt of significant snow resources caused the inflow to the Volga- Kama Reservoirs equal to 1,8-3 of normal. As a result, the inflow to reservoirs of the Volga-Kama cascade was 50 % higher than mean value (mean value is equal 66 cub. km, inflow in 1991 was 96,8 cub.km). The extremely high discharge through the Volgograd Hydropower Plant dam has caused the flood at the Low Volga River. As the result the vast areas have been flooded, 102 dams have been destroyed. The total economic losses has been equal to 552,5 million rubles for the Volgograd, Astrakhan, Ulyanovsk, Nizhniy Novgorod and Saratov regions, the Tatar and Chuvash Republics (Taratunin, 2000).

Among the other climate induced hazards for agriculture are droughts, tornadoes, stormy rains, hail falling and returns of frosts in spring. In 1999 the intensive drought resulted in drying of the upper layer of ground in July. The storage of the productive moisture was 5-10 mm. Conditions for the harvest forming especially of maize, potato, and vegetables were extremely unfavourable. In 1999 the intensive drought resulted in drying of the upper layer of ground in July. The storage of the productive moisture was 5-10 mm. Conditions for the harvest forming especially of maize, potato, and vegetables were extremely unfavourable. In 2001 the storm rains destroyed 5,000 ha of crops, in 2005 – 6000 ha in the Stavropol and Krasnodar regions, in Bashkortostan and the south of ER. In 2001 the storm rains destroyed 5,000 ha of crops, in 2005 – 6000 ha in the Stavropol and Krasnodar regions, in Bashkortostan and the south of ER. In 1999, 2001 and 2004 during blossoming returning frosts reduced significantly yield of fruits, vegetables, berries in a huge area from south to north of ER. In 1999, 2001 and 2004 during blossoming returning frosts reduced significantly yield of fruits, vegetables, berries in a huge area from south to north of ER.

Soil Up to now majority of the scientists consider that the summer dryness of the continents is the most significant process, which may intensify the desertification of some regions. But the increase in soil moisture content results in the consequences of no less value: (a) waterlogging, (b) secondary salinization, (c) erosion, (d) scour of the top fertile soil layer, (e) gully formation, (f) glee formation, (g) soil degradation. Some ways of soil protection are well known: drainage, protective forest belts, agro technical measures, preventing from soil degradation, terracing of steep slopes, forestation of ravines, etc. But it is necessary to use the special adaptation measures for soil and plants, mitigated the influence of warming Up to now majority of the scientists consider that the summer dryness of the continents is the most significant process, which may intensify the desertification of some regions. But the increase in soil moisture content results in the consequences of no less value: (a) waterlogging, (b) secondary salinization, (c) erosion, (d) scour of the top fertile soil layer, (e) gully formation, (f) glee formation, (g) soil degradation. Some ways of soil protection are well known: drainage, protective forest belts, agro technical measures, preventing from soil degradation, terracing of steep slopes, forestation of ravines, etc. But it is necessary to use the special adaptation measures for soil and plants, mitigated the influence of warming

Adaptation. The peculiarities of Russia location as a northern area result in high vulnerability of it natural environment in north and not less vulnerability of agricultural production in the south caused by high demand and low supply of water resources. In spite of the fact that there is an evident relationship between climate and agricultural production, climate change is not still taken into account in agricultural practice. It is especially actual for Russia with its vast territory and diversity of climate and natural conditions.

As human is not capable to stop global warming progress in the nearest years, we have to search the ways of adaptation to new condition in order to provide sustainable society. The objectives of adaptation in the frame of agriculture are considered in several aspects:

To assess possible changes in agroclimatic resources and their latitudinal shifts (shifts of belts, zones, provinces and regions ) based on different scenarios of global warming To assess possible changes in agroclimatic resources and their latitudinal shifts (shifts of belts, zones, provinces and regions ) based on different scenarios of global warming Mapping and regionalization of unfavorable/favorable climate-related consequences of agricultural productivity Mapping and regionalization of unfavorable/favorable climate-related consequences of agricultural productivity To develop common data base ClimHydroAgro, which unites data on the main climatic, hydrologic characteristic, soils, land-use, agricultural management systems. To develop common data base ClimHydroAgro, which unites data on the main climatic, hydrologic characteristic, soils, land-use, agricultural management systems.

Selection of the most important agricultural crops (rye, wheat, corn, pea, sugar-beet, oil-seed crops and so on) and introduction of new species of plants Selection of the most important agricultural crops (rye, wheat, corn, pea, sugar-beet, oil-seed crops and so on) and introduction of new species of plants Improvement of agricultural technology – thinning of sown crops, change in crop rotation, fallow period Improvement of agricultural technology – thinning of sown crops, change in crop rotation, fallow period Proposal of a radical measure (in some publications) - movement of population and agricultural production northward Proposal of a radical measure (in some publications) - movement of population and agricultural production northward To shift croplands to non-chernozem region To shift croplands to non-chernozem region To use the complex drainage-irrigation systems to balance moistening. To use the complex drainage-irrigation systems to balance moistening. Change of the sowing dates Change of the sowing dates

Another important aspect of agricultural Russia is the poverty of rural people. In 2000 the Russias rank among other countries was only 98th- with her per capita national income being $ 2270 (according to the World Bank estimates). Poverty dimensions of rural people were much larger than that of urban dwellers. ¾ of rural people have average income below minimal living wage and 61% rural families have all resources at their disposal (including all kinds of income) below poverty line (Petrikov, 2004). Large poverty in Russia rural areas and rational natural resources management are incompatible. (Sdasyuk, 2005).

After the great fall of Russia agricultural production in 1990s, only the last few years witnessed some slow So, the social and economic initial level of Russia needs to be taken into account. The Volume of agricultural production in Russia, % from 1990.