Презентация на тему: " G.V.P COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING1 Chapter II - Forecasting Operations Management." — Транскрипт:
G.V.P COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING1 Chapter II - Forecasting Operations Management
G.V.P COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING2 Learning Objectives Identify Principles of Forecasting Explain the steps in the forecasting process Identify types of forecasting methods and their characteristics Describe time series and causal models
G.V.P COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING3 Learning Objectives cont Generate forecasts for data with different patterns: level, trend, seasonality, and cyclical Describe causal modeling using linear regression Compute forecast accuracy Explain how forecasting models should be selected
Homework Help 8.4: (a) forecasts using 3 methods. (b) compare forecasts using MAD. (c) choose the best method and forecast July. 8.7: use 3 methods to forecast and use MAD and MSE to compare. (notes: will not have forecasts for all periods using 3-period MA; use actual for period 1 as forecast to start exp smoothing. 8.10: determine seasonal indices for each day of the week, and use them to forecast week : simple linear regression (trend) model. NOTE: Spreadsheets might be very useful for working these problems.