Olga Chudinovskikh, Lomonosov Moscow State University / Higher School of economics High-level seminar on population censuses and statistics of migration. - презентация

1 Olga Chudinovskikh, Lomonosov Moscow State University / Higher School of economics High-level seminar on population censuses and statistics of migration in the CIS countries UNECE, Federal State Statistics Service of Russia Gelendzhik, October 2013

2 Positive trends of the latest decade Peculiarities of migration in the CIS region and its reflection in statistics Producers and main types of data – a system, but not separate elements Main challenges in the sphere of statistics on migration through the prism of statistics on permanent-type and temporary labour migration Concluding remarks

3 1. Development of migration modules in the questionnaires used at the recent censuses 2. Every country has agencies that collect almost all types of data related to migration (level of development and interactions may differ) 3. More sources are involved into data processing and exchange at the national level (depending on financial support and political will of data producers). 4. More data are published, access to statistics becomes easier (including microdata). Diversification of published statistics. 5. Development of mutual understanding between national statistical agencies and administrative bodies collecting data on migration and related events

4 Agencies responsible for populaiton registration, migration and citizenship National statistical agency Border service Ministry of education MFA Foreign students: enrollment, stock and graduates Visa statistics, Citizenship Data on registrations in consulates Visa statistics, Citizenship Data on registrations in consulates Data on entries and exits by countries, purposes and types of transport Censuses Work permits Asylum Residence permits Citizenship Administrative practices ets. Work permits Asylum Residence permits Citizenship Administrative practices ets. Data on labour migration Data for statistics of flows Data on refugees and IDPs Current registration of flows Data on repatriants Labour force and living standards surveys Producers of migration (and related events) data at the national level in the CIS states 4 Other agencies

5 Data that were the subject of analysis characterized 1) permanent-type migration – censuses of the recent round annual (current) statistics of flows 2) labour migration (mainly temporary), Including available data of different surveys, censuses, administrative data of migration authorities and expert estimates

6 Dramatic decrease of population born in the European part of the former USSR, mainly these people represent old generations. Considerable increase of population born in the Central Asian region (mainly – of working ages) Foreign born population step by step started to represent real international migration (not statistical foreign born that was counted right after the breakdown of the USSR). People born in a certain country and having its citizenship differ by country and comparing to each other. Some examples:

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13 CIS area is not a homogeneous migration space Migration is very selective Millions of people residing in CIS are involved into migrations and the biggest part of movements takes place within the region: about 92% of immigrants come from / and 75% of emigrants go to another CIS country, Russia is the main destination country both for long-term and temporary migrants from the other CIS states. In it has positive net- migration with all CIS countries (except Belarus). After the breakdown of the USSR migration ties between some of the former soviet republics (excluding Russia) weakened dramatically ( for example, Ukraine – Central Asia, Armenia-Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan- Tajikistan, Turkmenistan - all the other countries);

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15 Data of the national statistical office of : ARMAZBELKAZKYRGMOLDRUSTAJTURKUKRUZB ARM AZER BEL GEOR KAZ KYRGYS MOLD RUS TAJ TURK UKR UZB CIS TOTAL

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18 Asymmetry of roles: mainly sending or mainly receiving states Major part of workers move to the RF and partially – to Kazakhstan, migrants from the European countries of the CIS much more often chose the countries of the other part of the world. Most part of migrants are undocumented Temporary forms are prevailing Migrant-workers in Russia and Belarus mainly come from the CIS area, while the other countries invite skilled workers from the other part of the world. (CIS: RF > 90%, RB – 40%, Ukraine – 30%, RT and AzR – about 10%) CIS nationals are rare among highly skilled workers (in the RF- 7-8% )

19 VolumeCountries of Destinations Sources: Armenia 80 th.Russia (95%)Migration Service, 2010 Azerbaijan More 100 th Russia (more 80%)Estimation based on Russian data, 2011 Kyrgyzstan th Russia (80-85%), Kazakhstan (15%) Population Census, 2009 Moldova 300 th.Russia (60%), EU (30%)Labor Force Survey, Tajikistan 430 thRussia (95%-98%)Households Survey, 2008 Ukraine 1.5 mlnRussia (48,1%), Italy (13.4%), Czech Rep. (11.9%) Ukrainian External Labor Migration. National survey Uzbekistan > 1 mlnRussia (60%-70%) Kazakhstan (25%- 30%) Estimation based on Russian and Kazakhstan data, 2011

20 Survey data (Kyrgyzstan) on absent population compared with the Federal Migr. Service of Russia data on issued work permits Migration cards (Tajikistan) and FMS data on issued work permits

21 Alternatives to traditional statistical data sources (data on residence permits can partly substitute statistics of immigration flows) Admin. Data on work permits can be the main (if not the only) source of information on labour migration

22 Rapid increase in numbers for RK and KR are caused by the changes in legislation on citizenship. Before 2011 these migrants could apply for the RF citizenship without any additional status and did not need residence permit

23 Seems to not realistic so far Even annual statistics of flows shows considerable discrepancies Solution: comprehensive metadata Competent users An intermediary agency that collects, harmonizes and publishes data from different states

24 Political decisions are usually based on data produced by national stat. agency If data are not good or interpreted incorrectly - decisions are not efficient Since the ties in the CIS area are still rather close, policy of a country is not indifferent to the neighbours Conclusion - Вывод – статистика миграции не имеет границ, и должна восприниматься как «своя», вне зависимости от страны, где произведена Political decisions are usually based on data produced by national stat. agency If data are not good or interpreted incorrectly - decisions are not efficient Since the ties in the CIS area are still rather close, policy of a country is not indifferent to the neighbours Conclusion - Вывод – статистика миграции не имеет границ, и должна восприниматься как «своя», вне зависимости от страны, где произведена

25 Statistics of flows - use e-format instead of paper carriers Censuses – questions about absent population should not limit time of absence (up to 5 hears) Surveys - to conduct sample surveys in the CIS area simultaneously or without considerable time interval, harmonized methodology and questionnaires, to create a joint database Diversification of data sources, involvement of administrative data related to migration and its consequences Methodology: revision of recommendation is necessary Coordination of efforts in the region via a respected agency with international (regional) mandate. ! To treat sources and data as a system, not as separate elements

26 Благодарю за внимание! Thank you for your attention!

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