Agrophysical Research Institute www.agrophys.ru. ADAGIO Greece Meeting on 8-10 September 2008 Identifying feasible potential adaptation measures in Russian. - презентация

1 Agrophysical Research Institute

2 ADAGIO Greece Meeting on 8-10 September 2008 Identifying feasible potential adaptation measures in Russian agriculture Russian partner report by Mikhail Nikolaev Natalia Lemeshko Igor Uskov

3 There is a number of weather and climate limitations and extremes affecting crop production in Russia. The spatial distributions some of these are illustrated in the maps.

4 Frequency of severe atmospheric droughts (%) (by E.A.Tsuberbiller)

5 Frequency of severe dry winds (%) (by V.A.Sennikov)

6 Frequency of dust storms in summer season (%) (by E.K.Zoidze)

7 Unfavorable conditions for crop wintering (by V.A.Moiseichik)

8 However, with climate change climatology of droughts, dry winds and dust storms as well as wintering conditions may change significantly. Moreover, agroecological limitations and vulnerabilities such as soil degradation processes and pest attacks may intensify. Meanwhile, more favorable conditions for farm practice are expected to experience in some regions as well.

9 The question arise: What should the farmer do in changing conditions?

10 Question: Do you feel the climate change impacts on your agricultural activity? Answer: 100% Yes! To reveal the adaptability of Russian farmers to changes in climate we have handed our questionnaires regarding to farm technologies, land use planning and crop protection in changing climatic conditions. The survey has give the following results:

11 The farmers of the North-Western Russia answered that due to mild winters they noticed more often crop wetting out and more frequent occurrence of winter pests in soil. Simultaneously, the opportunities appeared to cultivate rape, wheat and silage maize. However, Colorado potatoes beetle harmfulness increased.

12 The farmers of the Central Russia noticed more frequent rotting out of winter crops in their farms. At the same time, due to warmer and wetter summers more frequent occurrence of leaf diseases. But, in some southern portions of the Central Russia they began cultivate more intensive such plants as sunflower and maize.

13 The farmers from the Volgograd Region (is a dry region in the South- Eastern Russia) noticed that during the last 2-3 years they intensified winter wheat cultivation due to reduction in frost killing risk, and also they began to use of soil loosening in autumn.

14 high prices of fertilizers; high prices of fuel; frequent profitless expenses due to low vendor prices. Therefore, the farmers prefer to cultivate more profitable crops, which are in great demand in the local markets, or to specialize in fodder crop cultivation in order to maintain the one livestock basis. Still, there are factors preventing the full adaptation of farmers to changing climate conditions. Such factors are as follows:

15 REGIONAL SURVEY ON MOST SPECIFIC ADAPTATION MEASURES AND ONCOMING ADAPTATION STRATEGIES

16 Recently, the map was constructed for regionalization of adaptation measures and technologies within European part of Russia [ Nikolaev, 2007]. This map is made on the basis of the integrated analysis of spatial distributions in agro-climatic resources, environmental risks, soil types and agricultural specializations. Proceeding from this map we further focus on feasible adaptation measures allowing for specific agroecological conditions in the every region separately.

17 Climatological design for regionalization of adaptation measures and technologies in agricultural sector of economy within European part of Russia ( Nikolaev M.V., 2007) Region: European part of Russia north 61o n.1.(Type of climate: cool temperate, humid/sub-humid) North-Western Russia (Type of climate: temperate, humid) Central Russia (Type of climate: temperate, humid/sub-humid) Chernozem Centre and Middle Volga (Type of climate: temperate, semi-arid) Lower Volga and southern Pre-Ural (Type of climate: temperate, semi-arid/arid) Northern Caucasus (Type of climate: warm temperate, semi-arid/sub-humid)

18 North-Western Russia including northern regions of the European Part of Russia Type of climate: temperate / cool temperate, humid Type of soils: podzolic soils Agricultural specialization: potato farming, grass farming, fiber flax farming, crop farming dominated by cereals such as winter rye, spring barley and oats

19 Main vulnerabilities under current climate conditions are as follows: wetting out, lodging, soil acidification, pests, diseases and weeds Potential vulnerabilities under climate change are as follows: increase in wetting out, lodging, pests, diseases and weeds

20 soil liming application of cultivars resistant to snow mold switching from winter crops to summer crops in the regions where crops are subject to severe wetting out plant breeding for rape, silage sunflower and silage maize high-yielders diversification of pesticides, fungicides and herbicides in the regions potentially vulnerable to pest pathogens and weeds effective application of introduced entomophages, namely: perillus bioculatus, podisus machuliventris and tachida against colorado potato beetle effective application of aboriginal entomophages such as carabidae and chrisopidae against colorado potato beetle effective application of entomophages against cereal insect pests, namely: imagues and larvae of Lady bugs against cereal aphids, namely: spalangia drosophilae against frit fly introduction of new entomophags. SPECIFIC FEASIBLE ADAPTATION MEASURES MAY INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING:

21 An example of entomophage fauna

22 It is interesting to notice the fact of accilimatization of such entomophage as harmonia axyridis against aphidae in this region during the last 7 years owing to climate warming. It should be noticed that this entomophage could not be acclimatized in this region during the preceding 50 years.

23 Type of climate: temperate, humid/sub- humid Type of soils: podzolic soils, gray soils and podzolic chernozem Agricultural specialization: crop farming dominated by cereals and buckwheat, potatoes farming and grass farming Central Russia

24 Main vulnerabilities under current conditions are as follows: rotting out, ice crust, lodging, wet- and dry spells, structureless and compacted soil formations ( partly ). Potential vulnerabilities under climate change are as follows: rotting out (increase), ice crust (decrease), lodging (increase), dry spells (increase).

25 Specific feasible adaptation measures in the region may include the following : structuring of structureless soils by grass arable rotation and meadow grass rotation; mechanical techniques application for agricultural restoration of compacted soils; soil aggregation using chemical methods; organic farming; enlarging the generic composition of seed grasses, especially clover varieties; effective application of introduced and aboriginal entomophages against Colorado potatoes beetle and cereal insect pests, especially Eurygaster bugs; application of cultivars with high resistant properties to rots.

26 Harrow intended for overall pre-sowing tillage during winter or spring plowing at the depth of 18 cm with the purpose of fine-grained soil structure creation in order to reach sowing

27 Chernozem Centre and the Middle Volga Regions Type of climate: temperate, semi-arid Type of soils: learched chernozem, modal chernozem, common chernozem, southern chernozem Agricultural specialization: sugar beet farming, crop farming dominated by cereals such as winter and spring wheat

28 Main vulnerabilities under current climate conditions are as follows: ice crust, frost killing, droughts, dry winds, water erosion Potential vulnerabilities under climate change are as follows: increase in ice crust, droughts, dry winds, water erosion and decrease in frost killing.

29 Specific feasible adaptation measures in these regions may include the following: application of under-winter plowing for reducing the surface runoff and increase in infiltration of water from melted snow into soil application of fallowing for improving the water / heat soil conditions application of harrowing for reducing the moisture evaporation out of the upper plough layer (up to 10 cm deep) soil gypsuming organic farming in several locations snow piling for snow accumulation

30 Machine for sub-surface tillage

31 Effective application of field afforestation for snow accumulation and regulation of soil moisture for the purpose of water erosion protection such as: conversion afforestation slope afforestation gully afforestation enlarging of generic composition of forest belts, for example, trees planting with additional oak, maple and hornbeam replanting in pine and birch forest belts in this consequence the opportunities of reservation and acclimatization of new entomophages are enlarge in these belts.

32 Field-protecting forest belt consisting of birch and bushes in a summer season

33 Field-protecting forest belt consisting of birch and bushes in a winter season

34 Type of climate: temperate, semi-arid / arid. Type of soils: chestnuts. Agricultural specialization: crop farming dominated by cereals such as durum wheat. The Lower Volga and Southern Pre- Ural Regions

35 Main vulnerabilities at current climate conditions are as follows: frost killing, droughts, wind erosion, dust storms. Potential vulnerabilities under climate change are as follows: frost killing (decrease), drought period (increase).

36 Specific feasible adaptation measures in the regions may envisage the following: soil loosening in autumn providing for water infiltration into soil in winter and spring subsurface tillage due to the existing wind erosion in-depth tillage (the depth of soil tillage is more than 30 cm) with the purpose of additional moisture accumulation change in the crop rotation system when applying some kinds of drought-resistant crops

37 Arable land clearance and stublle-field mulching performed by stublle field cultivator

38 Effective application of wind-breaking belts and afforestation of sands for protection against wind erosion and dust storms for example: by regulating the height and width of belts by creating the optimum configuration of belts by spreading the generic composition (for example, application of blackthorn and hawthorn in wind-breaking belts consisting of acacia) by extending forest plantations consisting of other drought-tolerant trees

39 Effective application of (snow) hedge intended for snow retention and protection against wind erosion, namely: by improving their wind protection, soil protection and snow regulation effects under climate change. This improvement may be reached by spreading the generic composition of snow hedges optimizing the dimensions of the snow hedges and their interspace under change in wind conditions optimizing the snow hedge configuration considering the potential shift in the anticyclones under the climate changes. For example, snow hedges consisting of mustard, sunflower and cow-parsnip have now a sufficient efficiency.

40 Measurement of the ultimate wind pressure on (snow) hedge

41 Northern Caucasus Type of climate: warm temperate, semi- arid/sub-humid Type of soils: deep chernozem, common chernozem, southern chernozem and deep chestnut. Agricultural specialization: crop farming dominated by cereals such as maize for grain and hard winter wheat, sugar beet farming, orchard farming and vegetable farming.

42 Main vulnerabilities under current climate conditions are as follows: early autumn and late spring frosts, droughts and dry winds, hail, floods, wind- and water erosion ( partly ). Main vulnerabilities under climate change are as follows: drought periods (increase), water- and wind erosion (increase).

43 Specific feasible adaptation measures in the region may include are as follows : application of early spring- and autumnal irrigation in order to keep up the optimum soil moisture conditions, agro-hydrological properties of soils taking into consideration; more effective application of basin irrigation in the costal zone; improving bench border irrigation with allowance of the opportunities for planting of new crops in the highlands; optimizing the sprinkler irrigation in summer seasons; improvement of the techniques for rice irrigation depending on weather and climatic situations;

44 Resource-saving technology for sub-surface tillage

45 more effective application of the techniques for protection of orchard crops and fruits (e.g., grape, apricots and citrus) against early autumn and late spring frosts ( in particular, the techniques based on fumigation and earthing- up methods ); optimum distribution of forest shelter- and wind break belts; application of new introduced entomophages due to the potential hazard of Mediterranean fruit fly (Ceratitis capitata) invasions in the context of changing climate conditions. Some cases were registered, when this species appears in the Krasnodar area.

46 List of new publications Monographs: Global climate change and risks in agriculture.Ed.:A.L.Ivanov Chaper1 (UskovI.B., Nikolaev M.V., Nasonov D.V., Kononenko O.V., Danilova G.V), RAAS issue, Moscow, 2008 (in press) Uskov I.B. et al. Agrometeorological factors and potential productivity (postponed to printing to 2009) Papers: Derzhavin L.M. and I.B.Uskov. Fertilizer efficiency and land productivity under global climate change. Plodorodie( Fertility), no 2, 2008, p Uskov I.B. The global warming is coming: what should the farmer do? Agrarny Ekspert (Agrarian Expert), no2, 2008, p.6-9

47 Further, we plan to specify and generalize this results in the context of the ADAGIO Third general meeting.

48 Thank you