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Презентация была опубликована 7 лет назад пользователемЕвгения Урбанович

1 Chap 7-1 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 7 Sampling and Sampling Distributions Statistics for Business and Economics 6 th Edition

2 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-2 Chapter Goals After completing this chapter, you should be able to: Describe a simple random sample and why sampling is important Explain the difference between descriptive and inferential statistics Define the concept of a sampling distribution Determine the mean and standard deviation for the sampling distribution of the sample mean, Describe the Central Limit Theorem and its importance Determine the mean and standard deviation for the sampling distribution of the sample proportion, Describe sampling distributions of sample variances

3 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-3 Descriptive statistics Collecting, presenting, and describing data Inferential statistics Drawing conclusions and/or making decisions concerning a population based only on sample data Tools of Business Statistics

4 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-4 A Population is the set of all items or individuals of interest Examples: All likely voters in the next election All parts produced today All sales receipts for November A Sample is a subset of the population Examples:1000 voters selected at random for interview A few parts selected for destructive testing Random receipts selected for audit Populations and Samples

5 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-5 Population vs. Sample a b c d ef gh i jk l m n o p q rs t u v w x y z PopulationSample b c g i n o r u y

6 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-6 Why Sample? Less time consuming than a census Less costly to administer than a census It is possible to obtain statistical results of a sufficiently high precision based on samples.

7 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-7 Simple Random Samples Every object in the population has an equal chance of being selected Objects are selected independently Samples can be obtained from a table of random numbers or computer random number generators A simple random sample is the ideal against which other sample methods are compared

8 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-8 Making statements about a population by examining sample results Sample statistics Population parameters (known) Inference (unknown, but can be estimated from sample evidence) Inferential Statistics

9 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-9 Inferential Statistics Estimation e.g., Estimate the population mean weight using the sample mean weight Hypothesis Testing e.g., Use sample evidence to test the claim that the population mean weight is 120 pounds Drawing conclusions and/or making decisions concerning a population based on sample results.

10 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-10 Sampling Distributions A sampling distribution is a distribution of all of the possible values of a statistic for a given size sample selected from a population

11 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-11 Chapter Outline Sampling Distributions Sampling Distribution of Sample Mean Sampling Distribution of Sample Proportion Sampling Distribution of Sample Variance

12 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-12 Sampling Distributions of Sample Means Sampling Distributions Sampling Distribution of Sample Mean Sampling Distribution of Sample Proportion Sampling Distribution of Sample Variance

13 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-13 Developing a Sampling Distribution Assume there is a population … Population size N=4 Random variable, X, is age of individuals Values of X: 18, 20, 22, 24 (years) A B C D

14 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap A B C D Uniform Distribution P(x) x (continued) Summary Measures for the Population Distribution: Developing a Sampling Distribution

15 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap possible samples (sampling with replacement) Now consider all possible samples of size n = 2 (continued) Developing a Sampling Distribution 16 Sample Means

16 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-16 Sampling Distribution of All Sample Means P(X) X Sample Means Distribution 16 Sample Means _ Developing a Sampling Distribution (continued) (no longer uniform) _

17 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-17 Summary Measures of this Sampling Distribution: Developing a Sampling Distribution (continued)

18 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-18 Comparing the Population with its Sampling Distribution P(X) X A B C D Population N = 4 P(X) X _ Sample Means Distribution n = 2 _

19 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-19 Expected Value of Sample Mean Let X 1, X 2,... X n represent a random sample from a population The sample mean value of these observations is defined as

20 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-20 Standard Error of the Mean Different samples of the same size from the same population will yield different sample means A measure of the variability in the mean from sample to sample is given by the Standard Error of the Mean: Note that the standard error of the mean decreases as the sample size increases

21 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-21 If the Population is Normal If a population is normal with mean μ and standard deviation σ, the sampling distribution of is also normally distributed with and

22 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-22 Z-value for Sampling Distribution of the Mean Z-value for the sampling distribution of : where:= sample mean = population mean = population standard deviation n = sample size

23 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-23 Finite Population Correction Apply the Finite Population Correction if: a population member cannot be included more than once in a sample (sampling is without replacement), and the sample is large relative to the population (n is greater than about 5% of N) Then or

24 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-24 Finite Population Correction If the sample size n is not small compared to the population size N, then use

25 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-25 Normal Population Distribution Normal Sampling Distribution (has the same mean) Sampling Distribution Properties (i.e. is unbiased )

26 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-26 Sampling Distribution Properties For sampling with replacement: As n increases, decreases Larger sample size Smaller sample size (continued)

27 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-27 If the Population is not Normal We can apply the Central Limit Theorem: Even if the population is not normal, …sample means from the population will be approximately normal as long as the sample size is large enough. Properties of the sampling distribution: and

28 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-28 n Central Limit Theorem As the sample size gets large enough… the sampling distribution becomes almost normal regardless of shape of population

29 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-29 Population Distribution Sampling Distribution (becomes normal as n increases) Central Tendency Variation Larger sample size Smaller sample size If the Population is not Normal (continued) Sampling distribution properties:

30 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-30 How Large is Large Enough? For most distributions, n > 25 will give a sampling distribution that is nearly normal For normal population distributions, the sampling distribution of the mean is always normally distributed

31 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-31 Example Suppose a population has mean μ = 8 and standard deviation σ = 3. Suppose a random sample of size n = 36 is selected. What is the probability that the sample mean is between 7.8 and 8.2?

32 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-32 Example Solution: Even if the population is not normally distributed, the central limit theorem can be used (n > 25) … so the sampling distribution of is approximately normal … with mean = 8 …and standard deviation (continued)

33 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-33 Example Solution (continued): (continued) Z Sampling Distribution Standard Normal Distribution Population Distribution ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ? ? SampleStandardize X

34 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-34 Acceptance Intervals Goal: determine a range within which sample means are likely to occur, given a population mean and variance By the Central Limit Theorem, we know that the distribution of X is approximately normal if n is large enough, with mean μ and standard deviation Let z α/2 be the z-value that leaves area α/2 in the upper tail of the normal distribution (i.e., the interval - z α/2 to z α/2 encloses probability 1 – α) Then is the interval that includes X with probability 1 – α

35 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-35 Sampling Distributions of Sample Proportions Sampling Distributions Sampling Distribution of Sample Mean Sampling Distribution of Sample Proportion Sampling Distribution of Sample Variance

36 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-36 Population Proportions, P P = the proportion of the population having some characteristic Sample proportion ( ) provides an estimate of P: 0 1 has a binomial distribution, but can be approximated by a normal distribution when nP(1 – P) > 9

37 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-37 Sampling Distribution of P Normal approximation: Properties: and (where P = population proportion) Sampling Distribution ^

38 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-38 Z-Value for Proportions Standardize to a Z value with the formula:

39 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-39 Example If the true proportion of voters who support Proposition A is P =.4, what is the probability that a sample of size 200 yields a sample proportion between.40 and.45? i.e.: if P =.4 and n = 200, what is P(.40.45) ?

40 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-40 Example if P =.4 and n = 200, what is P(.40.45) ? (continued) Find : Convert to standard normal:

41 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-41 Example Z Standardize Sampling Distribution Standardized Normal Distribution if p =.4 and n = 200, what is P(.40.45) ? (continued) Use standard normal table: P(0 Z 1.44) =

42 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-42 Sampling Distributions of Sample Proportions Sampling Distributions Sampling Distribution of Sample Mean Sampling Distribution of Sample Proportion Sampling Distribution of Sample Variance

43 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-43 Sample Variance Let x 1, x 2,..., x n be a random sample from a population. The sample variance is the square root of the sample variance is called the sample standard deviation the sample variance is different for different random samples from the same population

44 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-44 Sampling Distribution of Sample Variances The sampling distribution of s 2 has mean σ 2 If the population distribution is normal, then If the population distribution is normal then has a 2 distribution with n – 1 degrees of freedom

45 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-45 The Chi-square Distribution The chi-square distribution is a family of distributions, depending on degrees of freedom: d.f. = n – 1 Text Table 7 contains chi-square probabilities d.f. = 1d.f. = 5d.f. =

46 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-46 If the mean of these three values is 8.0, then X 3 must be 9 (i.e., X 3 is not free to vary) Degrees of Freedom (df) Here, n = 3, so degrees of freedom = n – 1 = 3 – 1 = 2 (2 values can be any numbers, but the third is not free to vary for a given mean) Idea: Number of observations that are free to vary after sample mean has been calculated Example: Suppose the mean of 3 numbers is 8.0 Let X 1 = 7 Let X 2 = 8 What is X 3 ?

47 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-47 A commercial freezer must hold a selected temperature with little variation. Specifications call for a standard deviation of no more than 4 degrees (a variance of 16 degrees 2 ). A sample of 14 freezers is to be tested What is the upper limit (K) for the sample variance such that the probability of exceeding this limit, given that the population standard deviation is 4, is less than 0.05? Chi-square Example

48 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-48 Finding the Chi-square Value Use the the chi-square distribution with area 0.05 in the upper tail: probability α = = = (α =.05 and 14 – 1 = 13 d.f.) Is chi-square distributed with (n – 1) = 13 degrees of freedom

49 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-49 Chi-square Example So: (continued) 2 13 = (α =.05 and 14 – 1 = 13 d.f.) (where n = 14) so If s 2 from the sample of size n = 14 is greater than 27.52, there is strong evidence to suggest the population variance exceeds 16. or

50 Statistics for Business and Economics, 6e © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 7-50 Chapter Summary Introduced sampling distributions Described the sampling distribution of sample means For normal populations Using the Central Limit Theorem Described the sampling distribution of sample proportions Introduced the chi-square distribution Examined sampling distributions for sample variances Calculated probabilities using sampling distributions

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