Boris Revich, MD, Ph.D, D. Sc., Prof. Head Laboratory of Environmental Health of the Institute for Forecasting Russia Academy of Science, Moscow 3 International. - презентация

1 Boris Revich, MD, Ph.D, D. Sc., Prof. Head Laboratory of Environmental Health of the Institute for Forecasting Russia Academy of Science, Moscow 3 International Arctic Forum, Salehard, Climate Change Impact on Public Health at the Russian Arctic

2 Research of relationship between Climate Change and Health Effects at Russian Arctic Climate change and infections diseases, water and food quality Impacts of heat waves and cold spells Climate change + air pollution Influence of global warming on traditional lifestyle and subsistence of small indigenous populations of Russian North ASSESMENTPROGNOSIS ADDAPTATIONS

3 Incidence of Tick-Borne Encephalitis in the Russian Federation and Arkhangelsk Oblast Tokarevich et.al. 2010, 2011

4 Prospective estimate of climate-induced changes in Ix. persulcatus habitat under the extreme climate change scenario until – no change; 1 – reduction in habitat area; 2 – expansion of habitat area; 3 – habitat at present time (Yasiukevich, 2013).

5 Prospective estimate of climate-induced changes in An. maculipennis habitat under the assumption that average global temperature rises by +1.5°С 0 –no mosquitoes of this species, 2 expansion of habitat area; 3 habitat at present time (Yasiukevich, 2013).

6 Permafrost degradation leads to disruption of engineering infrastructure Buildings built on permafrost slide down or fall apart; Urgent and costly repairs of sewage disposal systems, water supply networks, water treatment plants; Incidents / breakdowns of sewerage disposal networks; Depreciated quality of drinking water and water in open reservoirs; Increase in incidence of water borne infections, intestinal diseases

7 Anthrax cattle burial grounds in Arctic region RegionNumberYears Sakha (Yakitia) republic Archangelsk oblast Karelia Taymyr okrug Komi Republic Khanty-Mansiysk okrug Nenets okrug Yamalo-Nenets okrug Murmansk oblast Evenkia, Koryak, Chukotka okrug, Magadan oblast No data Total 520

8 Мелкобугристый тундровый ландшафт в окрестностях с. Койда (к западу от зоны развития карста). Palsa bog and pit hummock tundra landscape in vicinities s. Koida (to the west from a zone of development of a karst)( Iglovsky, 2010)

9 Climate Сhange - Degradation of Permafrost – Anthrax cattle burial grounds Anthrax among people or cattle have been reported in 29,000 settlements of the Russian North, including 270 Yakutia settlements ( years), located near the burial grounds of cattle died from Anthrax The results of paleo-microbiological tests showed that viable viruses of anthrax might survive in tissues of corpses under permafrost conditions (Belanov et al., 1997).

10 Geographic distribution of burial grounds of cattle died (+) from anthrax in Yakutia Revich, Podolnya, 2011

11 META-ANALYSIS Relative mortality risks, RR [95% CI] during long cold waves (8 days and more) and short heat waves (5-7 days), pooled estimate for 4 cities – Murmansk, Archangelsk, Yakutsk and Magadan (Shaposhnikov,Revich2014) *)Statistically significant at 95% level Cause and age of deathCOLDHEAT Infarctions_ ,25*[1,06; 1,44]1,20[,89; 1,50] Infarctions_65+ 1,40*[1,21; 1,59]0,78[,48; 1,08] Brain Strokes_65+ 1,41*[1,19; 1,62]1,44*[1,09; 1,79] Non-accidental_65+ 1,25*[1,15; 1,34]1,01[,85; 1,16] External_ ,00[,81; 1,19]1,39*[1,11; 1,66]

12 Double strike: climate change + environment pollution

13 Health risks for small indigenous populations of Chukotka, 2008 Vaigach island, 2011 Yakutyia, 2013 Early melting of ice Problems with hunting Increase in injury rates among reindeer-breeders

14 Стратегия адаптации к воздействию изменения климата на здоровье населения для Архангельской области и Ненецкого автономного округа Российской Федерации Стратегией предусмотрено: усиление межсекторального взаимодействия, укрепление лабораторной базы санитарной службы, развитие медицинской службы в отдаленных районах НАО, создание мобильных медицинских отрядов, усиление медицинского просвещения населения об опасности волн жары и других климатических изменений. Особое внимание уделено группам населения повышенного риска – пожилым, детям, социальным группам риска.

15 Thanks